03-16-2020, 04:14 PM
(This post was last modified: 03-16-2020, 04:19 PM by ResidentArtist.)
The Lichtman test is imperfect in that it relies partially on interpretation, but I would still call it a solid system, provided that metrics are used to determine a few of the more ambiguous keys. Some are already outlined in the book or in this thread, but I would like to compile criteria:
*Contest: Serious primary challenger garners at least one-third of delegates
*Third party: Significant third party candidate is polling at least 5% of the vote nationally or statewide
*Policy change: Incumbent achieves something major that they campaigned on
*Social unrest: No sustained riots (not just protests)
*Foreign success: Achieves an economic/nuclear agreement with adversary, doesn't lose an ally to revolution (i.e. Truman with China or Carter with Iran), oversees kill or capture of a key terrorist, or a war is quickly won rather than prolonged indefinitely
*Candidate charisma: Candidate has public/personal approval rating of at least 50-60%
Other keys such as economic growth, midterm results, or incumbency are more evident and easily determinable.
*Contest: Serious primary challenger garners at least one-third of delegates
*Third party: Significant third party candidate is polling at least 5% of the vote nationally or statewide
*Policy change: Incumbent achieves something major that they campaigned on
*Social unrest: No sustained riots (not just protests)
*Foreign success: Achieves an economic/nuclear agreement with adversary, doesn't lose an ally to revolution (i.e. Truman with China or Carter with Iran), oversees kill or capture of a key terrorist, or a war is quickly won rather than prolonged indefinitely
*Candidate charisma: Candidate has public/personal approval rating of at least 50-60%
Other keys such as economic growth, midterm results, or incumbency are more evident and easily determinable.