03-16-2020, 04:50 PM
(03-16-2020, 03:49 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: One of the Lichtman keys, #5 (economy not in recession, stagflation, or hyperinflation) may be turning against Trump.
The DJIA closed nearly 3000 points down in the absolute largest one-day drop and the second-highest percentage drop ever. Of the six largest drops by percentage, five are in 1929 or 2020. The other is the largest percentage drop was the odd drop of 50 points (over 22%) on 19 October 1987 which was reversed rather quickly because there was no underlying cause for a recession.This time (as in 1929)... there is one.
The worst three one-day declines by percentage in 2008 were #11, #15, and #16.
Maybe the Great and Unqualified Genius can solve all our problems for us
A coronavirus-driven recession would turn key #5, and also #6 if severe enough. Factoring those in with the criteria listed above, I'd put the 13 keys in the following columns:
Trump Keys (7)
*Contest
*Incumbency
*Third party
*Policy change (most of it by executive action and SCOTUS appointments, but policy change nonetheless)
*Social unrest
*Foreign/military success
*Challenger charisma
Biden Keys (6)
*Party Mandate
*Short-term economy
*Long-term economy
*Scandal
*Foreign/military failure
*Incumbent charisma
I still give Trump the foreign success key because although there wasn't ever a NK deal and the agreement with Iran went up in flames, he did negotiate and get ratified a replacement for NAFTA, along with plans to finally get out of Afghanistan. It's a mixed category.
If you were to ask me a week ago, I'd have said Trump would likely win again. Hurricane Corona has thrown everything up in the air. This puts the score at 7-6 which by Lichtman terms is no serious lead at all, since five or less need to go to the challenger to secure reelection. One important distinction: the system only accounts for the popular vote, so the six that Biden has might mean a repeat of 2016.