2020 Predictions

[pbrower2a]

(03-11-2020, 01:00 PM)JDG 66 Wrote:

(03-11-2020, 02:43 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: Here are the Lichtman keys. Six turning against the Party then holding the Presidency implies that that party will at the least lose the popular vote for the Presidency. Explanations...

2. (The incumbent Party does not face a significant challenge from an intra-party challenger)...  The perception of vulnerability is exactly what one sees. I am calling this one tentatively against President Trump because people voting for a mainstream opponent in the Primary or casting blank or "uncommitted" votes instead of those for the incumbent indicate that support for the incumbent is not so solid as it was in the election in which the incumbent became President. 9.1% of participants in the Republican primary in New Hampshire went to Bill Weld, who is not a joke. 

This key has some ambiguity, but this one might turn favorably for the President, only for such expression to appear in votes for a Third-Party or independent nominee who siphons away votes that the incumbent needs...

4. (Third Party challenger to the incumbent's Party) Third Parties can ruin an incumbent Party's campaign by taking away part of the Party's natural constituency...

8. (No significant unrest) Every President will face some dissent, but as long as it does not transmute into riots and ethnic or religious violence, things aren't so bad.

...There have been two ugly incidents of people firing upon (and killing) Jews in religious ceremonies. Most of us, if President, would have expressed contempt with the threat of through federal investigation and prosecution. It is President Trump's weak response that suggests Presidential failure. Add to this his infamous statement that "there are good people on both sides" in the aftermath of a neo-Nazi running over a protester at the Unite the Right rally in Charlottesville, Virginia. There are no good people on both sides of racist violence any more than there are good people on both sides on arson, child molestation, armed robbery, or drug trafficking.  Trump fails to show effective and responsible leadership on this...    
10. (No significant failure of foreign policy) What is a major failure? The 'loss' of a seemingly reliable ally that is shakier than people realize. Military defeat (rare in American history). Republicans were never going to let Truman get away with "losing" China, and they were never going to let Carter get away with "losing" Iran.

Getting a deal that implodes is worse than no deal at all. Does anyone here trust either the Taliban or North Korea?  

...

12. (The Party's nominee has charisma) You know charisma when you see it.

Donald Trump is a wreck. This key has turned against him...

Numbers #1, #6, #8, #9, and #12  already have turned unambiguously against the President. If #2 doesn't get him, then #4 probably will, but I don't see either having turned yet.

#3 and #13 are on his side and aren't going away. #7, #10, and #11 are ambiguous and can go bad if time runs out on this President...

Oh boy. I'll deal with some of the partisan silliness, then do some analysis of your analysis.

On 8: Trump did not call Nazis "good people". He was referring to people who don't want to take down rebel statues:


https://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-p...story.html

Sheesh.

As for violence on both sides, Trump was correct. The so called Black Lives Matters types (racists) and the so-called Anti-Fa (Communists and Anarchists) were, and are, violent.

You alluded to the attacks on Azhkenazi Jews in NYC, but neglected to mention that they were inspired by the Black Hebrew Israelites, people with sort of mentality as the people who filled the pews of Jeremiah Wright and his buddy Louis Farrakhan. Who was it that considered Wright his mentor, again?

BTW, the BHIs are the same group that phony veteran Nathan Phillips claimed were threatened by the Covington Catholic school kids last year. Hardy har har.

On 10: I don't remember you having a problem with Obama trusting the regime his administration called the foremost supporter of state sponsored terrorism, but maybe I missed it. Meanwhile, the deal with the Taliban is conditional, and Trump has given North Korea nothing.

Anyway...

On Key 2 & Key 4:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Repub..._primaries

...I officially declare William Weld "a joke".

He is a former State governor, and generally recognized as effective.   

Quote:On Key 8: Really? Compared to what?

Compared to itself. To be sure, these are lone-wolf attacks. I mentioned the attacks on synagogues in Pittsburgh and Poway. These attacks are not against a religious assembly out of a personal grudge.  The attack on the Pittsburgh synagogue was about a Jewish congregation facilitating the immigration of people that the shooter hated. Trump's anti-immigrant speech has consequences. Then there was a nutcase in Florida who turned his van into a veritable bomb factory. His van was decorated with pro-Trump paraphernalia. 

Trump has been weak in addressing domestic terrorism. Contrast Reagan.

Quote:On Key 12: I think you haven't been paying attention for the past four years. Trump fills a stadium in the rain or snow better than any "D", including Crazy Bernie. I now await your predictable violation of Godwin's Law.

Charisma is the ability to get people to do things that they otherwise would not do, as to set aside an agenda contrary to that of a Leader on behalf of something better. He is not winning people over.