03-16-2020, 10:31 PM
(03-10-2020, 02:13 PM)JDG 66 Wrote:(03-10-2020, 02:04 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: ...But Trump still has a % advantage in his horoscope score. He has an advantage in the new moon before election method that I use too, as well as incumbency. The party in power is favored to win in 2020 by that method...
-Huh. I would have assumed that you would have equated Trump with a full moon. Oh well.
Sounds like you're copping out, Eric... Or perhaps that equates to a close election?
P.S. EDIT:
Again, my Word doc doesn't translate well, but here are my list of states and districts that have an essentially 0% chance of going for Trump:
CA (55), DC (3), HW (3), IL (20), ME1 (1), MD (10), MA (11), NY (29), OR (7), RI (4), VT (3), WA (12).
These essentially have a 100% chance of going for Trump:
AL (9), AR (6), ID (4), KS (6), KY (8), LA (8), MS (6), MO (10), MT (3), NE(-) (2), NE1 (1), NE3 (1), ND (3), OK (7), SD (3), SC (9), TN (11), WV (5), WY (3).
That's right, a close election is predicted.
I would include Delaware (3) among the certain blue states, especially with Biden the likely nominee, CT (7), and NJ (14), but then I would expect you to shortchange the blues.
Utah (6) doesn't like Trump, but will vote Republican anyway. Indiana is likely safe Republican (11).
There are fewer swing states now, not more. The tribes are loyal and set. No matter what Trump does, his base is blindly behind him.