The Crisis That Never Ended

[Eric the Green]

(03-30-2020, 12:56 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(03-30-2020, 07:00 AM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(03-29-2020, 10:38 PM)gabrielle Wrote:

(03-29-2020, 04:16 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(03-29-2020, 03:21 PM)David Horn Wrote: There is a nascent Draft Cuomo movement.  I doubt it's more than talk, but who knows?

As far as policy is concerned, Cuomo would probably be less progressive than Biden. His horoscope score is a little lower, but he has no incipient senility (or what's the better word? I can't find it even on google!)

And then, you know, there is the other guy that's still in the race, the one who for the past few weeks has diverted funds from his campaign to various charities to aid with pandemic relief, the one whose Neo-New Deal policies would do the most to get us through this crisis and start the regeneracy...

Myself, I registered Democratic so I could vote for that other guy, and I did. Now though, Biden is whom we got, and I'm glad that despite a bad performance in an MSN interview recently, he was coherent and clear on Meet the Press yesterday speaking about the virus and stuff. So, as long as he can do that, I'm sure he'll be the nominee. I don't know if he will win. He still has a small lead over the virus in the White House.

Here's how I see the options:

1. All the Dems, including Bernie and his followers, unite behind Biden and he wins.  We have a quiet "return to normalcy" that satisfies no one, and the left and center battle it out again in 2024
   
2. All the Dems, including Bernie and his followers, unite behind Biden and he loses. Biden will be the last centrist this cycle
   
3. Dissension reigns in the Democratic Party, but Biden wins.  The Bernie Bros will never be taken seriously again, and the left will be a long time regrouping.
   
4. Dissension reigns in the Democratic Party and Biden loses. The Democrats will come apart at the seams, unless Bernie does a huge mea culpa -- a highly unlikely event.
   

Pick your poison.  In order of preference, Ill go for 1, 3, 2, 4.  I might chose differently if the circumstances were different, but we can't have Trump for 8.

I don't think those options are very likely, or desirable. Fun to discuss though. Regarding them:

#1 is closest to likely, I guess. But as gabrielle said, I don't think a return to normalcy is possible now. The 4T continues and so do its crises and turmoil. The left will pressure Biden to act, if he's elected. He has bent a bit to Bernie's challenge, which may or may not be a good sign. But if Bernie's Revolution keeps the pressure up on him, he may bend some more. I think the left and center will battle it out for the foreseeable future, no matter who wins. But how it shapes up depends entirely on how good the candidates are, as candidates. And also on "whose turn it is."

#2. Sadly, when Democratic centrists lose, centrists can still be around and do well.

#3 is not true because of what I said in #1. The problems remain and arouse activism. The Left don't need to regroup, they are already well organized. I don't see a better left wing candidate than Bernie, unless you see Sherrod Brown as left wing.

#4 I doubt Bernie has anything to mea culpa about. If Biden loses, Trump will begin to abuse his power even more and lose popularity, and may be impeached and even removed. In this situation, the Democrats will not come apart but will unite and win in 2024, after a big midterm victory in 2022. The candidate in 2024 will be closer to the center than Bernie, because that's who is out there who has any chance according to the horoscope scores. AOC for example will never even get close.

A breakup of the major parties is possible, but the Democrats, even though they have a left wing that splits off, will not come apart as long as the Republicans do not come apart.