The Crisis That Never Ended

[Eric the Green]

(03-31-2020, 11:44 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(03-30-2020, 11:47 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(03-30-2020, 12:56 PM)David Horn Wrote: Here's how I see the options:

1. All the Dems, including Bernie and his followers, unite behind Biden and he wins.  We have a quiet "return to normalcy" that satisfies no one, and the left and center battle it out again in 2024
   
2. All the Dems, including Bernie and his followers, unite behind Biden and he loses. Biden will be the last centrist this cycle
   
3. Dissension reigns in the Democratic Party, but Biden wins.  The Bernie Bros will never be taken seriously again, and the left will be a long time regrouping.
   
4. Dissension reigns in the Democratic Party and Biden loses. The Democrats will come apart at the seams, unless Bernie does a huge mea culpa -- a highly unlikely event.
   

Pick your poison.  In order of preference, Ill go for 1, 3, 2, 4.  I might chose differently if the circumstances were different, but we can't have Trump for 8.

I don't think those options are very likely, or desirable. Fun to discuss though. Regarding them:

#1 is closest to likely, I guess. But as gabrielle said, I don't think a return to normalcy is possible now. The 4T continues and so do its crises and turmoil. The left will pressure Biden to act, if he's elected. He has bent a bit to Bernie's challenge, which may or may not be a good sign. But if Bernie's Revolution keeps the pressure up on him, he may bend some more. I think the left and center will battle it out for the foreseeable future, no matter who wins. But how it shapes up depends entirely on how good the candidates are, as candidates. And also on "whose turn it is."

Since you mentioned it as well, I should note that "return to normalcy" was in quotes for a reason.  No, Uncle Joe can never be more than a place holder in a Crisis, so he'll either bow out after one term (which I find likely) or he'll get challenged.   So he picks to run with him will determine how 2024 actually goes.  In any case, both factions will be in it.

The 2020 Democratic field was just too weak. Since Biden may pick someone who ran in the 2020 campaign, and he has limited his options to women, we can't assume that his veep will be the nominee in 2024.

Quote:

Eric Wrote:#2. Sadly, when Democratic centrists lose, centrists can still be around and do well.

After two hand-picked insiders lose to Donald Trump, the validity of that wing of the party will be toast.  I can't say who will step up, but it won't be a member of the establishment.

I don't see any such candidate, at least not off hand. The last two insiders were not "hand-picked." They decided to run, and the Democratic voters, dominated by older generations, voted for them. So, they may dominate it again. Maybe at least a less "insider" choice will appear, and if millennials dominate the primary, (s)he could have a chance in 2024. This will be the election in which millennials have their maximum power as a generation, if they use it. But, it still depends on the skill of the candidate, and there aren't many good options.

Just who is and isn't an "insider" is not clear. Arguably Obama was an "outsider" in 2008, but his two successor nominees were his secretary of state and vice-president, and therefore "insiders."

Quote:

Eric Wrote:#3 is not true because of what I said in #1. The problems remain and arouse activism. The Left don't need to regroup, they are already well organized. I don't see a better left wing candidate than Bernie, unless you see Sherrod Brown as left wing.

If Bernie and the Bernie Bros try to deep-six Biden and they miss, the soon-to-be 80-year old leader will be done … and so will they.  In 2024, to say nothing of 2028, Bernie will be too old, and so will EW.  That means a new generation of leaders will have to emerge, run and win primaries. 2028 is about as soon as that's possible, under this scenario, but if Biden does a successful hand-off to his running mate, it may be 2032.

Bernie is done as a candidate, though not as an activist, but as I say, I'm not sure who could take over his mantle.

Quote:

Eric Wrote:#4 I doubt Bernie has anything to mea culpa about. If Biden loses, Trump will begin to abuse his power even more and lose popularity, and may be impeached and even removed. In this situation, the Democrats will not come apart but will unite and win in 2024, after a big midterm victory in 2022. The candidate in 2024 will be closer to the center than Bernie, because that's who is out there who has any chance according to the horoscope scores. AOC for example will never even get close.

Again, this is based on Bernie and his Bros undermining Biden.  A second Trump term blamed on Bernie, and it will be under these circumstances, will call for lots of contrition -- not a Bernie long suit.  That might split the party, or simply weaken it.

I don't see that a Trump loss in 2022 or 2024 would have anything to do with Bernie. If Biden loses in 2020, it will be because Biden was not good enough as a candidate (incipient dementia being the most likely cause, or just because Trump's skill is slightly higher). If Trump wins re-election, he will screw things up badly. His ego will know no bounds. The Democrats will benefit in 2024, and we don't know who the candidate will be. My indicators say this is the most likely series of events, but the indicators are ambiguous.

Quote:

Eric Wrote:A breakup of the major parties is possible, but the Democrats, even though they have a left wing that splits off, will not come apart as long as the Republicans do not come apart.

If the left departs for (insert the party that they join or create), the Dems will have a hard time being anything more than equivalent of the British Liberal Party … once dominant and proud and by then, an after thought.

As long as the current right-wing evil fanatic Republican Party remains united, it will be too evil for the Democrats to break up, aside from the usual departures that happen anyway.