07-15-2016, 08:20 PM
Polling as of Friday night.
https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/stat...3096788993
NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist
Demagogue Don needs all four of these states, and he isn't getting them according to this poll. He needs to be getting well into the forties to have a chance to win these states, and he isn't doing so. Even Q shows him stuck around 40% support.
One unanswered question with these polls is how Gary Johnson and Jill Stein are doing. The 2012 Presidential race looks increasingly like a three-way race.
http://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000155-e...f97c6b0001
Florida (one more):
In a Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research poll of 800 likely voters
Clinton 45
Trump 40
Johnson 6
Other 2
Undecided 7
White
Clinton 35
Trump 50
Latino
Clinton 53
Trump 31
Black
Clinton 80
Trump 9
Useful because Florida is, despite its far-off-center position in the USA, is a fairly-good microcosm of America. Greenberg-Quinland-Rosner is one of the best pollsters around (see also Selzer).
Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump
![[Image: genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...&NE3=0;1;6]](http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_p=1&type=calc&AL=0;;6&AK=2;;4&AZ=4;;1&AR=2;;4&CA=1;;7&CO=1;;4&CT=1;;4&DE=0;;5&DC=0;;9&FL=1;;4&GA=2;;4&HI=0;;7&ID=2;;4&IL=1;;4&IN=2;;4&IA=1;;3&KS=2;;4&KY=4;;1&LA=2;;6&MD=1;;9&MA=1;;4&MI=1;;6&MN=1;;4&MS=2;;3&MO=0;;3&MT=2;;6&NV=1;;4&NH=1;;4&NJ=1;;6&NM=1;;4&NY=1;;7&NC=1;;4&ND=0;;5&OH=4;;1&OK=2;;4&OR=1;;4&PA=1;;3&RI=0;;6&SC=2;;4&SD=0;;5&TN=2;;4&TX=2;;4&UT=4;;1&VT=0;;6&VA=1;;4&WA=1;;4&WV=2;;9&WI=1;;4&WY=0;;6&ME=1;;4&ME1=1;1;6&ME2=4;1;1&NE=0;;5&NE1=0;1;5&NE2=0;1;5&NE3=0;1;6)
30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more
Leads with less than 40% are considered TIES.
...By the way -- I suggest that we pay more attention to my polling thread on the three-way race for Clinton/Johnson/Trump. The unusually-strong Libertarian ticket may change the character of this Presidential race from the binary races to we have been accustomed the last four times.
...and the three-way polling that I prefer:
Three-way race:
![[Image: ??;4&ME1=1;X;6&ME2=4;X;1&NE=0;;5&NE1=0;X...NE3=0;99;6]](http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_p=1&type=calc&AL=0;;6&AK=2;9/8;4&AZ=1;4/??;4&AR=2;11/8;4&CA=1;;6&CO=1;9/13;3&CT=1;5/6;4&DE=0;;5&DC=0;;9&FL=1;5/6;4&GA=2;7/6;4&HI=0;;7&ID=0;;6&IL=1;12/6;4&IN=0;;5&IA=1;1/7;3&KS=2;11/8;4&KY=0;;6&LA=0;;5&MD=0;;6&MA=0;;1&MI=1;17/14;3&MN=0;;4&MS=0;;5&MO=0;;5&MT=0;;5&NV=1;4/5;4&NH=0;;5&NJ=1;12/9;4&NM=1;8/14;4&NY=0;;6&NC=1;7/10;3&ND=0;;5&OH=1;1/7;3&OK=2;20/6;4&OR=1;14/??;4&PA=1;3/9;3&RI=0;;6&SC=0;;5&SD=0;;5&TN=0;;5&TX=2;7/7;3&UT=2;9/10;3&VT=1;15/10;3&VA=1;5/11;3&WA=1;12/??;4&WV=0;;6&WI=1;6/9;4&WY=0;;6&ME=1;7/??;4&ME1=1;X;6&ME2=4;X;1&NE=0;;5&NE1=0;X;9&NE2=0;X;9&NE3=0;99;6)
Small states and districts in area: CT: D5,6;4
ME: D7,??;4 ME-01 (est) D14,??;6 ME-02 R2,??;4
NJ D9,12;4
VT D15,10,3
Clinton (D)
Trump ®
Johnson (L)
https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/stat...3096788993
NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist
Quote:CO: Clinton 43, Trump 35
FL: Clinton 44, Trump 37
NC: Clinton 44, Trump 38
VA: Clinton 44, Trump 35
Poll conducted from July 5-11.
Demagogue Don needs all four of these states, and he isn't getting them according to this poll. He needs to be getting well into the forties to have a chance to win these states, and he isn't doing so. Even Q shows him stuck around 40% support.
One unanswered question with these polls is how Gary Johnson and Jill Stein are doing. The 2012 Presidential race looks increasingly like a three-way race.
http://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000155-e...f97c6b0001
Florida (one more):
In a Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research poll of 800 likely voters
Clinton 45
Trump 40
Johnson 6
Other 2
Undecided 7
White
Clinton 35
Trump 50
Latino
Clinton 53
Trump 31
Black
Clinton 80
Trump 9
Useful because Florida is, despite its far-off-center position in the USA, is a fairly-good microcosm of America. Greenberg-Quinland-Rosner is one of the best pollsters around (see also Selzer).
Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump
30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more
Leads with less than 40% are considered TIES.
...By the way -- I suggest that we pay more attention to my polling thread on the three-way race for Clinton/Johnson/Trump. The unusually-strong Libertarian ticket may change the character of this Presidential race from the binary races to we have been accustomed the last four times.
...and the three-way polling that I prefer:
Three-way race:
Small states and districts in area: CT: D5,6;4
ME: D7,??;4 ME-01 (est) D14,??;6 ME-02 R2,??;4
NJ D9,12;4
VT D15,10,3
Clinton (D)
Trump ®
Johnson (L)
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.