04-12-2020, 05:57 PM
Showing the trend, which really counts, for states of my selection. The gap is between Biden and Trump in the electoral matchup (how people would vote on the day of the poll), R (Republican) suggesting a gap favoring Trump, D (Democrat) suggesting a gap favoring Biden, and "TIE" suggesting no obvious gap.
I have chosen states with an eye (although I do not always get it) to geographic diversity within groups and, with two exceptions, states with six or more electoral votes.
Reliably R:
state 3/1 3/15 4/9
AL 16R 19R 12R
IN 10R 10R 5R
KS 16R 15R 12R
WV 12R 9R 6R
States racially-polarized (usually R, but oddities this year):
state 3/1 3/15 4/9
LA 2R 4R 2D
MS 3R 6R 1R
SC 6R 3R 2R
Fringe of contention Trump wins, 2016
state 3/1 3/15 4/9
GA TIE 2R 4D
NC 5D 4D 10D
TX 4R 2R TIE
Obama 2012/Trump 2016 + AZ
state 3/1 3/15 4/9
AZ 1R 1D 5D
FL 6D 6D 11D
IA TIE 1D 6D
MI 8D 8D 11D
OH 1R 2R 5D
PA 7D 11D 12D
WI 4D 5D 8D
Bare Trump losses 2016
state 3/1 3/15 4/9
ME 12D 13D 17D
MN 15D 16D 21D
NH 1D 2D 7D
NV 12D 12D 16D
Fringe of contention against Trump, 2016
state 3/1 3/15 4/9
CO 10D 11D 15D
NM 17D 19D 18D
VA 9D 8D 13D
Reliably D
state 3/1 3/15 4/9
CT 23D 25D 28D
IL 24D 24D 28D
WA 22D 22D 28D
D max-out
state 3/1 3/15 4/9
CA 32D 33D 36D
MD 30D 29D 34D
NY 31D 32D 37D
Do I think this polling completely reliable? Hardly. It rules out people who have no Internet access or do not know how to use it. That likely means older, poorer, less-educated people. If such people are Hispanic or non-white then that means little because poorer people in such populations vote much like the younger, richer, better-educated people in their groups. The sorts of people that Hillary Clinton understandably yet regrettably called a "basket of deplorable(s)", the "low-information voters" for which Trump expressed love, are likely under-represented. This likely most applies to the states that I have placed in the "racially-polarized" category, where white people are especially likely to at least be poorer and less educated... in states in which usually voting divides neatly on ethnic lines.
Still, although I see effectively no change between March 1 and March 15, I see an overall swing of about 5% in practically all states. This is consistent with the Quinnipiac poll (+8) from the middle of last week, one for CNN (+11), and the poll by a British pollster with whom I am unfamiliar (+12). I would not be surprised to find polling by news agencies in countries that find, except for COVID-19, the 2020 Presidential election of the United States to the most likely biggest story of the year.
Collapses happen in Presidential races, and they usually have obvious and evident cause. 2000 deaths per day from COVID-19? That is approaching Civil War levels.
I have chosen states with an eye (although I do not always get it) to geographic diversity within groups and, with two exceptions, states with six or more electoral votes.
Reliably R:
state 3/1 3/15 4/9
AL 16R 19R 12R
IN 10R 10R 5R
KS 16R 15R 12R
WV 12R 9R 6R
States racially-polarized (usually R, but oddities this year):
state 3/1 3/15 4/9
LA 2R 4R 2D
MS 3R 6R 1R
SC 6R 3R 2R
Fringe of contention Trump wins, 2016
state 3/1 3/15 4/9
GA TIE 2R 4D
NC 5D 4D 10D
TX 4R 2R TIE
Obama 2012/Trump 2016 + AZ
state 3/1 3/15 4/9
AZ 1R 1D 5D
FL 6D 6D 11D
IA TIE 1D 6D
MI 8D 8D 11D
OH 1R 2R 5D
PA 7D 11D 12D
WI 4D 5D 8D
Bare Trump losses 2016
state 3/1 3/15 4/9
ME 12D 13D 17D
MN 15D 16D 21D
NH 1D 2D 7D
NV 12D 12D 16D
Fringe of contention against Trump, 2016
state 3/1 3/15 4/9
CO 10D 11D 15D
NM 17D 19D 18D
VA 9D 8D 13D
Reliably D
state 3/1 3/15 4/9
CT 23D 25D 28D
IL 24D 24D 28D
WA 22D 22D 28D
D max-out
state 3/1 3/15 4/9
CA 32D 33D 36D
MD 30D 29D 34D
NY 31D 32D 37D
Do I think this polling completely reliable? Hardly. It rules out people who have no Internet access or do not know how to use it. That likely means older, poorer, less-educated people. If such people are Hispanic or non-white then that means little because poorer people in such populations vote much like the younger, richer, better-educated people in their groups. The sorts of people that Hillary Clinton understandably yet regrettably called a "basket of deplorable(s)", the "low-information voters" for which Trump expressed love, are likely under-represented. This likely most applies to the states that I have placed in the "racially-polarized" category, where white people are especially likely to at least be poorer and less educated... in states in which usually voting divides neatly on ethnic lines.
Still, although I see effectively no change between March 1 and March 15, I see an overall swing of about 5% in practically all states. This is consistent with the Quinnipiac poll (+8) from the middle of last week, one for CNN (+11), and the poll by a British pollster with whom I am unfamiliar (+12). I would not be surprised to find polling by news agencies in countries that find, except for COVID-19, the 2020 Presidential election of the United States to the most likely biggest story of the year.
Collapses happen in Presidential races, and they usually have obvious and evident cause. 2000 deaths per day from COVID-19? That is approaching Civil War levels.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.