Will the new saeculum start after the pandemic is over?

[Bob Butler 54]

(04-22-2020, 03:35 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(04-22-2020, 11:26 AM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: I expect that, during the next 1T, we will look back and decide that this 4T is its own beast; that it wasn't quite like any previous 4T.

If there is any resemblance to a prior 4T, it seems the ACW is a lot closer than any other.  The run-up to that 4T was a long and messy attempt to avoid the crisis, but it came nonetheless. We're following that part of the playbook rather closely.

I think that with nukes, the chance of a true crisis war is about shot, thus the obvious trigger of the regeneracy is gone.  Before nukes, one major power was always ever so ready to start a big war.  The elites of the winning power had a good chance of increasing their influence, and did not try to stop a war.  Since, they would become dust, and have been able to promote leaders that are a different sort of crazy.

We finally got a trigger in the virus as we were about to leave the Prophet - Nomad - Civic constellation of generations.  The question is whether the economy will be so shot as to prevent implementation of the whole blue agenda.  If the virus does cripple us economically, more or less a year of production gone, there is apt to be one heck of an awakening.

I am still not sure, if crisis wars are not the inevitable Trigger, if having a Trigger will be the norm in an age of nukes.  If not, the rhythm of the turnings could change significantly.