Will the new saeculum start after the pandemic is over?

[Bob Butler 54]

(04-28-2020, 09:40 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(04-27-2020, 08:47 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: … We finally got a trigger in the virus as we were about to leave the Prophet - Nomad - Civic constellation of generations.  The question is whether the economy will be so shot as to prevent implementation of the whole blue agenda.  If the virus does cripple us economically, more or less a year of production gone, there is apt to be one heck of an awakening.

I am still not sure, if crisis wars are not the inevitable Trigger, if having a Trigger will be the norm in an age of nukes.  If not, the rhythm of the turnings could change significantly.

I'm not going to rule out large wars entirely, but I see your point.  Global crises are needed to get a 4T rolling, and there aren't that many options out there.  Let's agree that the next challenge will be climate --another natural phenomenon not controlled by homo sapien-sapien.  I guess our progeny will have to create their own disasters.

As far as the impending 1T, that's also a bit of an enigma.  Unless we dissolve into Blue America and Red America, achieving some universal direction seems unlikely.

The 1T is generally a time when the Nomads lock down the solution to the crisis, force the rigid adherence to the solution of the problem just confronted.  Before the problem is solved, it is difficult to see how locking down the solution will take place.

I can see a lot of infrastructure building during highs.  Maybe starships and fusion generators will come this time instead of railroads or interstates?  I can see attempts at sitting on the old red culture.  The fantasies and lies that enabled us to not see the problems we allowed to sneak up on us will be hunted down and sat on with a McCarthy like attitude.

But how many problems will be addressed in the Crisis, how many will wait on the awakening is still an open question.  How much can we afford to do in the immediate economic aftermath of the crisis?  That which doesn’t come in the crisis the next wave of prophets will see and yell about in the awakening.  Global warming, the environment and population will present real enough potential disasters if nothing else rears it’s ugly head.  There are still autocratic governments clinging to power, keeping the people at bay.  A switch to fusion will at first unleash what has been global dimming.  We will get a burst of warming before the slowing of fossil fuel burning takes hold, perhaps enough to melt that arctic tundra and tip some tipping points.  That may hit or become easy to predict by the awakening.

I’m not too worried about no problems to solve left the next time around the cycles.  The prophet generation will find something to complain about.  That’s what we do.