08-03-2020, 10:19 AM
David, you’re probably right about the First Turning focus. However, Howe—and I, for what it’s worth—peg the potential endpoint for the turning crisis era—at 2030. That’s a full decade away, and with the swift and very uncertain way that the COVID-19 pandemic and fallout are unfolding, Howe almost has to commit himself to updating the crisis era itself, don’t you think? Someone correct me if I’m wrong, but doesn’t Peter Turchin also forecast things to come to a resolution by 2030?