08-05-2020, 05:49 PM
The Lichtman Test:
1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
5. Short term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
6. Long term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
Six keys against the Incumbent's Party give an overwhelming chance of failure.
So let's see how it worked out for 2016. In that open-seat election, blue would be for Donald Trump and red for Hillary Clinton:
1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
All four of the first four turn against the Democrats. Obama did not successfully build an electorally-stronger Democratic Party. Sanders was unable to get all of his supporters to go to Clinton in November. Jill Stein of the Green Party won enough left-leaning voters who would have never voted for Trump in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
5. Short term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
6. Long term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
OK, Obama's stewardship of the American economy was far steadier than that of Dubya, at the end of whose second term had an economic bubble going bust in a financial panic about as scary as that of 1929. It's the economy, stupid? To a large degree, but one can lose while the economy is going well.
7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
I forget -- over what change in policy did Obama preside? The biggest change was Supreme Court decisions about same-sex marriage and child custody rights. Obama handled it well. Give him some credit. There were no great pieces of legislation in the 114th Congress -- not that there was likely to be much agreement between a President and a hostile Congress. But I will have to hand him LGBT rights.
8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
Such unrest as there was was local and transitory. Obama had the most scandal-free Administration in decades.
Benghazi was out of the blue, a minor incident until ISIS found a way to exploit what had been a protest over the release of a very bad movie hostile to Islam -- a movie that practically nobody saw. Republicans successfully made a mountain out of a molehill, and that may have decided the election. Purple due to ambiguity. Perception is everything, and Americans were split along party lines on this.
11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
Nothing really happened, which is the best that could happen with a President facing a hostile Congress, but that is a negative for Obama's Party.
12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
(Make America Great Again) may be a hollow slogan, but Trump was able to appeal to the "basket of deplorable(s)" that Hillary Clinton derided. Trump expressed his love for "low-information voters". Whether one likes or loathes such and finds Trump's message hollow or even abominable, he succeeded in winning the right votes and getting elected.
Seven keys unambiguously turned for Trump in 2016, and it is amazing, if one looks at all the keys, that Hillary Clinton won the popular vote if not the electoral vote.
.....Now let's see how that works in 2020. Trump had his chances with both Houses of Congress on his side for two years and plenty of servile media praising him for everything and ridiculing all Democratic opposition.
Red favors the Democrat, and blue the Republican, with purple as ambiguous and green yet to be decided.
1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
This key turned decisively against a Trump re-election bid. Gaining seats is tough for any Party that has the incumbent President, but the 2018 midterm election was an unmitigated and unambiguous disaster for Trump and the GOP.
2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
William Weld did get nearly 10% support in the New Hampshire Republican Party, demonstrating that some dissent with Trump exists within the Republican Party -- but most states are decided by winner-take-all in the Republican nominating convention. Trump is in a far-stronger position here than he was in 2016 -- almost as strong as Obama in 2012.
4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
Not definitive unless the 2020 election be close enough. Still too early to call, so in green.
5. Short term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
6. Long term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
Trump was going to get a bum rap on this because it is very difficult to maintain a seven-year recovery following a meltdown that led to the threat of a second Great Depression. But the Plague of 2020, which by all reasonable accounts this President has handled ineptly, is causing mass unemployment and causing big losses of income to multitudes. Even if America gets out of a recession it will do so too late for Trump.
7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
Tax cuts for his super-rich supporters and putting reactionaries into court seats? He has not successfully banned abortion, rescinded LGBT rights, put organized prayer back in public schools, established a flat tax, privatized the Interstate Highway system to monopolistic profiteers, closed the Postal Service, or destroyed unions; success in any one of those would count even if they are harmful to more than to whom such would be desirable... even pathological change would count as major policy.
For example, a new persecution of an ethnic or religious group, no matter how abominable such a deed would be, would count as a positive. This key does not depend upon whether the change is good or evil.
8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
Have you been following the news? Even before that there were sporadic examples of racist violence, including the shootings of two synagogues and some lone-wolf Trump supporter mailing bombs to liberal politicians and celebrities. This went from green or purple to red a long time ago. "Surges" of federal law enforcement to suppress anti-Trump demonstrations have had the effect of casting a mist of kerosene upon a fire.
9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
This is the most corrupt Administration since at least Warren Gamaliel Harding.
10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
The President was impeached for an effort to get the President of Ukraine to embarrass the President's most likely opponent. Sure he got off -- on a nearly-strict party-line vote that might not look so good in November. Add to this -- while Americans are demonstrating over an incident of inexcusable police brutality, the People's Republic seems to be throttling such freedom as it had recently tolerated in Hong Kong. This may be even more momentous.
11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
Possible, but I don't see this yet. Green for undecided.
12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
The President is a wreck.
13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
Biden charismatic? Not really.
Eight keys have turned against the President, and one (a striking success in international affairs seems to be fading as a possibility to avoid going for Biden). The Lichtman test says that he loses even if I can interpret it to say that he would win decisively in 2016.
1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
5. Short term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
6. Long term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
Six keys against the Incumbent's Party give an overwhelming chance of failure.
So let's see how it worked out for 2016. In that open-seat election, blue would be for Donald Trump and red for Hillary Clinton:
1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
All four of the first four turn against the Democrats. Obama did not successfully build an electorally-stronger Democratic Party. Sanders was unable to get all of his supporters to go to Clinton in November. Jill Stein of the Green Party won enough left-leaning voters who would have never voted for Trump in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
5. Short term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
6. Long term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
OK, Obama's stewardship of the American economy was far steadier than that of Dubya, at the end of whose second term had an economic bubble going bust in a financial panic about as scary as that of 1929. It's the economy, stupid? To a large degree, but one can lose while the economy is going well.
7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
I forget -- over what change in policy did Obama preside? The biggest change was Supreme Court decisions about same-sex marriage and child custody rights. Obama handled it well. Give him some credit. There were no great pieces of legislation in the 114th Congress -- not that there was likely to be much agreement between a President and a hostile Congress. But I will have to hand him LGBT rights.
8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
Such unrest as there was was local and transitory. Obama had the most scandal-free Administration in decades.
10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
Benghazi was out of the blue, a minor incident until ISIS found a way to exploit what had been a protest over the release of a very bad movie hostile to Islam -- a movie that practically nobody saw. Republicans successfully made a mountain out of a molehill, and that may have decided the election. Purple due to ambiguity. Perception is everything, and Americans were split along party lines on this.
11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
Nothing really happened, which is the best that could happen with a President facing a hostile Congress, but that is a negative for Obama's Party.
12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
(Make America Great Again) may be a hollow slogan, but Trump was able to appeal to the "basket of deplorable(s)" that Hillary Clinton derided. Trump expressed his love for "low-information voters". Whether one likes or loathes such and finds Trump's message hollow or even abominable, he succeeded in winning the right votes and getting elected.
Seven keys unambiguously turned for Trump in 2016, and it is amazing, if one looks at all the keys, that Hillary Clinton won the popular vote if not the electoral vote.
.....Now let's see how that works in 2020. Trump had his chances with both Houses of Congress on his side for two years and plenty of servile media praising him for everything and ridiculing all Democratic opposition.
Red favors the Democrat, and blue the Republican, with purple as ambiguous and green yet to be decided.
1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
This key turned decisively against a Trump re-election bid. Gaining seats is tough for any Party that has the incumbent President, but the 2018 midterm election was an unmitigated and unambiguous disaster for Trump and the GOP.
2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
William Weld did get nearly 10% support in the New Hampshire Republican Party, demonstrating that some dissent with Trump exists within the Republican Party -- but most states are decided by winner-take-all in the Republican nominating convention. Trump is in a far-stronger position here than he was in 2016 -- almost as strong as Obama in 2012.
4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
Not definitive unless the 2020 election be close enough. Still too early to call, so in green.
5. Short term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
6. Long term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
Trump was going to get a bum rap on this because it is very difficult to maintain a seven-year recovery following a meltdown that led to the threat of a second Great Depression. But the Plague of 2020, which by all reasonable accounts this President has handled ineptly, is causing mass unemployment and causing big losses of income to multitudes. Even if America gets out of a recession it will do so too late for Trump.
7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
Tax cuts for his super-rich supporters and putting reactionaries into court seats? He has not successfully banned abortion, rescinded LGBT rights, put organized prayer back in public schools, established a flat tax, privatized the Interstate Highway system to monopolistic profiteers, closed the Postal Service, or destroyed unions; success in any one of those would count even if they are harmful to more than to whom such would be desirable... even pathological change would count as major policy.
For example, a new persecution of an ethnic or religious group, no matter how abominable such a deed would be, would count as a positive. This key does not depend upon whether the change is good or evil.
8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
Have you been following the news? Even before that there were sporadic examples of racist violence, including the shootings of two synagogues and some lone-wolf Trump supporter mailing bombs to liberal politicians and celebrities. This went from green or purple to red a long time ago. "Surges" of federal law enforcement to suppress anti-Trump demonstrations have had the effect of casting a mist of kerosene upon a fire.
9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
This is the most corrupt Administration since at least Warren Gamaliel Harding.
10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
The President was impeached for an effort to get the President of Ukraine to embarrass the President's most likely opponent. Sure he got off -- on a nearly-strict party-line vote that might not look so good in November. Add to this -- while Americans are demonstrating over an incident of inexcusable police brutality, the People's Republic seems to be throttling such freedom as it had recently tolerated in Hong Kong. This may be even more momentous.
11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
Possible, but I don't see this yet. Green for undecided.
12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
The President is a wreck.
13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
Biden charismatic? Not really.
Eight keys have turned against the President, and one (a striking success in international affairs seems to be fading as a possibility to avoid going for Biden). The Lichtman test says that he loses even if I can interpret it to say that he would win decisively in 2016.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.