2020 Predictions

[pbrower2a]

Which narrative do you wish to believe? People who believed a certain narrative thought that Donald Trump was charmed enough to win despite so many people loathing him. People blinded by their contempt for Trump (in my case that contempt has proved itself an understatement in my current view of him), Trump was going to lose because nobody but an utter fool could support someone that awful. Hillary Clinton's "Basket of Deplorable(s)" was much larger than many of us thought.

Quinnipiac:

Two states (KY, SC) that rarely get polled, and one that doesn't get polled often enough (ME) for a built-in complexity:

12. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president?
                    KY     ME     SC

Approve              49%    37%    49%
Disapprove           47     60     47
DK/NA                 4      3      4



Relating to the Senate:


10-11. Do you approve or disapprove of the way - (KY) Rand Paul, Mitch McConnell / (ME) Angus King, Susan Collins / (SC) Tim Scott, Lindsey Graham - is handling [his/her] job as United States Senator?
                    KY..............     ME............       SC...........
                    Paul   McConnell     King   Collins       Scott  Graham

Approve              43%    46%           60%    43%           55%    43%
Disapprove           38     48            25     52            22     47
DK/NA                19      6            14      6            22     10

McConnell, Collins, and Graham are the ones up for re-election, and they are clearly behind the Senators not up for re-election this time, and all three are underwater in approval.



https://poll.qu.edu/2020-presidential-sw...aseID=3670

This is hideous for Trump. It's likely an exaggeration. To be sure, only 200 in the sample... but if such a sample size is too small for Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin, such a sample size is adequate for Iowa:


Political Polls
@Politics_Polls
NEW @davidbinder / @focusonrural (D) Poll (7/30-31):

IOWA:
Biden 49% (+6)
Trump 43%
.
MICHIGAN:
Biden 51% (+10)
Trump 41%
.
WISCONSIN:
Biden 53% (+11)
Trump 42%
.
MINNESOTA:
Biden 54% (+18)
Trump 36%
12:22 PM · Aug 6, 2020

Utah, Hinckley Institute (associated, I assume, with the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints. a/k/a the Mormons:

Trump approval 55 (strong 36, somewhat 19)
Trump disapproval 43 approve (strong 36, somewhat 7)

https://www.deseret.com/utah/2020/8/6/21...itute-poll

...I get to re-introduce the deep blue for a state in which Trump has a 55% or higher approval. But even here, strong disapproval is just slightly (if insignificant statistically) higher than strong approval. This is about the shakiest 55% support that I can imagine, as Trump is so polarizing that "slight approval" is usually very small. Trump will win Utah, but with an unusually low level of support in this usually strong-R state.

I can say this: there will be plenty of Utah voters who will vote for Trump yet not be disappointed when he loses.

Seat-of-the-pants handicapping for the Presidency:

AZ Biden 70 Trump 30
FL Biden 70 Trump 30
GA Biden 70 Trump 30
IA Biden 55 Trump 45
ME Biden 99+ Trump 1 or less
MI Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
MN Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
NH Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
NC Biden 60 Trump 40
OH Biden 70 Trump 30
PA Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
TX Biden 60 Trump 40
WI Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less

I can add Kentucky and South Carolina:

AK Trump 60 Biden 40
KY Trump 65 Biden 35
MO Trump 70 Biden 30
MT Trump 70 Biden 30
SC Trump 60 Biden 40
UT Trump 95 other alternatives 5

California? How many 9's after the decimal point?

This is the first time in a long time in which I give Biden a stronger chance in Iowa than Trump. It is not an approval poll, but I can't imagine Trump having a positive approval rating with this Iowa split.



Trump approval 55% or higher
Trump approval 50-54%
Trump approval positive but under 50%
ties are in white
Trump approval negative but disapproval under 50%
Trump disapproval 50-54%
Trump disapproval 55% or higher