10-01-2020, 09:45 AM
(10-01-2020, 04:30 AM)Arkarch Wrote: I definitely noticed the mood / attitude change in the public during the mid-00's. I would tend to move more toward 2008 as our "1929" event, but we may have already been shifting before that. Some have argued even sooner.
I also continue to see this crisis as a Cold Internal War in a longer four saeculum cycle... Glorious Revolution (Cold Internal); American Revolution (Cold External - a proxy battle between England/France); American Civil (Hot Internal); WW2 (Hot External); and now back to Cold Internal.
When Howe suggests 2030 - I think that is an outlier. The last Crisis was 1929-1946 (a very late 1929 and a very early 1946) - so 16-17 years. So I am more apt to put a 1T by 2025. No matter who wins, the odds of a Presidential change in the next four years is high; (edit) and the players certainly by 2024 will not have the same temperament. I would keep those seatbelts tight!! , but this coming election may be the epic apex of the current Cold Internal Crisis. If its moving fast, 1T is coming fast.
(just to add... first Gen-X 1961 turns 60 in 2021... by 2026 its retirement time) I am 57.
I'm interested in your take on a cold-internal crisis, because this is certainly the ACW without the war -- at least so far. I also see this being an unresolved crisis, with some mighty important hangover issues needing resolution long before the next one. AGW is operating on physics, not politics, while growing inequality is fully political and being full ignored. At some point, that has to change to avoid disaster. You're young enough to see it start and maybe end as well, At most, I get to see the start.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.