10-09-2020, 03:54 AM
(This post was last modified: 10-09-2020, 04:13 AM by Arkarch.
Edit Reason: expansion
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(10-01-2020, 09:45 AM)David Horn Wrote:(10-01-2020, 04:30 AM)Arkarch Wrote: I definitely noticed the mood / attitude change in the public during the mid-00's. I would tend to move more toward 2008 as our "1929" event, but we may have already been shifting before that. Some have argued even sooner.
I also continue to see this crisis as a Cold Internal War in a longer four saeculum cycle... Glorious Revolution (Cold Internal); American Revolution (Cold External - a proxy battle between England/France); American Civil (Hot Internal); WW2 (Hot External); and now back to Cold Internal.
When Howe suggests 2030 - I think that is an outlier. The last Crisis was 1929-1946 (a very late 1929 and a very early 1946) - so 16-17 years. So I am more apt to put a 1T by 2025. No matter who wins, the odds of a Presidential change in the next four years is high; (edit) and the players certainly by 2024 will not have the same temperament. I would keep those seatbelts tight!! , but this coming election may be the epic apex of the current Cold Internal Crisis. If its moving fast, 1T is coming fast.
(just to add... first Gen-X 1961 turns 60 in 2021... by 2026 its retirement time) I am 57.
I'm interested in your take on a cold-internal crisis, because this is certainly the ACW without the war -- at least so far. I also see this being an unresolved crisis, with some mighty important hangover issues needing resolution long before the next one. AGW is operating on physics, not politics, while growing inequality is fully political and being full ignored. At some point, that has to change to avoid disaster. You're young enough to see it start and maybe end as well, At most, I get to see the start.
I have been mulling this question over.
I do not think the current crisis created the polarized views seen today. They have always been there, buried just under the earth by establishment and political correctness. But as distrust of institutions has evaporated into the current crisis, the old wounds have been layed bare, scratched and dirtied by the ideological death match of the boomers leading our world today.
When I talk to a hard conservative, they tell me they have not had a chance to prove their view of the world. When I suggest there have been many Presidents representing their views, they tell me the other Presidents have taken their victories apart. Its no wonder then there is a certain vengeance on Obamas victories. While I have not talked to progressives on the same matter, I am sure they feel the attack on hard-won victories like health care and civil rights. The democratization of news has only fanned the flames of both sides. Its like two kids kicking down each others sand castles. and a crowd has formed.
The recent Netflix show "The Social Dilemma" expressed that everyone on social media has a different view of the world. You and I see different articles on Facebook or Instagram. In an effort to cater to stories that interest each viewer to maximize eyeball time and profit, contextual media has only served to minimize exposure to the wider range of available ideas. This is not new. While I have not studied, no doubt through a wide range of writings, newspapers, and other technologies, the diversification of world view has existed; and in other times newsreels or Walter Cronkite served to unify one world view. Same thing, different time.
How this resolves? I do believe 2020 is the last deathmatch boomer election (understanding that Biden is Nov 1942 and on the cusp).
I think we have just passed the tipping point of the 4T. The last of our institutions has fallen - our trust in health and the police and the post office and even likely the Supreme Court. What worked for Trump in 2016 will not work today - we have already knocked down everything. Their law and order strategy is just kicking at ghosts.
The polls are now tipping fast. CNN Poll Biden +16 Nationally. Average polls closing in on +10. This is no longer an ideology-driven election - that is now noise. Many centrist Republicans, for which I will count myself, have joined the Biden side. I think people have tired of kicking sandcastles and are now just looking for stability to find solutions and ideas needed to build the world anew.
This is not only counted in politics, but in culture - Who won AGT? - a spoken word poet. Many singers are releasing introspective songs such as Billie Eilish - "My Future" or my fave - Grace Vanderwaal and her unpublished works in progress. Technology is starting to clamp down on the excesses with more warnings about inaccurate posts and filters. The world I knew in February is no longer the world in October - it happened that fast.
Longterm as we pass to the 1T.... While there may be some X-er leadership ahead (edit - Kamela Harris may become a President), I think leading Millennials like Pete Buttigieg on the centrist left and whomever rises on the centrist right will soon be the new drivers of our government and culture. There will remain ideological differences, but maybe the ocean waves will settle and the kids will tire and those sand castles may survive for awhile.