Neil Howe In The News

[Arkarch]

(11-12-2020, 10:04 PM)Mickey123 Wrote:

(11-11-2020, 08:59 PM)pbrower2a Wrote:

(11-11-2020, 10:57 AM)TeacherinExile Wrote: Some recent insights into Neil Howe’s thinking about the Fourth Turning:

U.S. faces a potential ‘secession crisis’ at home and ‘open conflict’ with China in the coming decade, says author who predicted 2020 unrest


https://www.marketwatch.com/story/enormo...2020-11-03

And this interview on Hedgeye TV with Keith McCullough:

Howe & McCullough: "The Fourth Turning: Navigating The Crisis In America" - YouTube

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qj5w7BimQJo

Howe drops a hint as to the focus of his next book: the globalizing alignment of his generational theory which, with the near-universal impact of COVID-19, will be interesting to see how he makes that case.  He best hurry up, though, on the publication of his presumably updated book because events may be unfolding faster than he can research and write it. I’m guessing that he’s aiming for a 25th anniversary edition of The Fourth Turning, which would put the publication date sometime in 2022.

I would love to participate in his book. I have some insights outside the box, and I can do some research.  Note also that the 35th anniversary of Generations is in 2024 (has it been that long?)

What must happen?

1. The interstate polarization in political results must weaken. It got more, and not less severe in 2020 than ever (ruling out the Southern states that did not have a meaningful Republican Party before at least the 1950's) since the run-up to the Civil War. 

2. If we need the effect of a Crisis War, then COVID-19 is it. It kills like a Crisis War; it is killing Americans at least on the scale of World War II, and it is likely to kill for a few more months. COVID-19 has forced people to change their behavior or has put them at risk of severe consequences. The body count is at a level that Americans will not long tolerate. COVID-19 will change even American culture to reflect its devastation. 

9 months from now, covid-19 will essentially be over in 1st world countries, the vast majority of their populations having immunity through vaccinations or through having had the disease themselves already.

But the Crisis will be far from over.  We're nowhere close to the end.  It's impossible to know what form the rest of the crisis will take.  Neil Howe mentions possible war with China, or some sort of civil war between parts of the U.S.  One way or another, though, the situation demands a huge crisis, some sort of enormous conflict big enough to bring the U.S. together and allow us to transition into the next high.

I can easily see a civil war starting.  Some time in the next few years, we end up with both houses of congress being controlled by democrats, as well as the white house with Biden.  Democrats begin passing far reaching legislation.  Red states refuse to follow whatever laws are being passed, and openly defy federal law.  An actual war could break out, and in the chaos, you could end up with some attempted socialist revolution, fascist takeover of government, or who know what else.

I think we'll be doing well if we emerge from the crisis with the U.S. still in one piece, not a dictatorship, and with no nuclear weapons having been used.