2016 Polling Thread

[pbrower2a]

My new format. Leaders in the binary race should be passing 45% support by now even in swing states. My rationale: the Parties have well defined themselves -- perhaps in the case of the Republicans this year, too well. Leads with less than 45% support in a binary race should either intensify or vanish. Allowing two recent polls in states that Donald Trump is likely to win even in a 45-state Clinton landslide to stick (I doubt that those will create any controversy -- Hillary Clinton will win neither Alabama nor Oklahoma) that rarely get polled, I have found single polls from Nevada and Pennsylvania and two polls from Georgia.

Hillary Clinton has leads of 5% (PPP), 


Binary race, Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump ®  



Leader up with

60% or more -- saturation 80%
55-59% --     saturation 70%
50-54% --     saturation 60%
46-49%, margin 5% or greater saturation 40%
46-49%, margin 4% or less saturation 20%

(the usual color applies for the partisan leader, but yellow blue to green and red to orange below  

40-45%, margin 5% or greater, saturation 40%
43-45%, margin 4% or less, saturation 20%  

I might give Gary Johnson leads a yellow color. That could also compel me to introduce a new format.

Johnson support:

16%+: 80
13-15: 70
10-12: 60
7-9: 50
4-6: 40
2-3: 30
0-1: 20
Poll w/ no Libertarian number: clear



Three-way race (so far showing the lead, the margin, and Johnson support). Anyone getting over 50% support gets numbers blanked out; 50% absolutely wins any race no matter how many are in it.  







Small states and districts in area or with shapes that allow confusion:

(none yet)


Clinton (D)
Trump ®
Johnson (L)