2016 Polling Thread

[pbrower2a]

Quote:I expect lots of polls to pop up tomorrow. They usually do on Wednesday.

They did, but not the ones (Marist, PPP, and Quinnipiac) that I expected. They might not be my favorites, but they have some value. Two of the states are critical for Republicans, and the only good news for them is that they have no chance of losing or failing to pick up a Senate seat in Michigan. There simply is no Senate race involving Michigan this year.

Michigan, Glengariff, Detroit News:

Clinton 41 - Trump 32 - Johnson 8 - Stein 3


 I see no binary matchup. Today's map understates Trump's problems with Michigan. I'm using the the four-way poll of Michigan, so a poll showing a binary matchup in Michigan should supplant this one instead of being averaged.    The GOP is having trouble with southwestern Michigan, usually a safe haven for Republicans in the House. Gerrymandering in an effort to dilute Democratic votes in House races may backfire this year.

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WBUR-TV (New Hampshire Public Television), MassInc

7/29 thru 8/1

Clinton: 47
Trump: 32
Johnson: 8
Stein: 3

Clinton:51
Trump: 34

629 LV

Also, Hassan now leads Ayotte by 50-40.

http://www.wbur.org/politicker/2016/08/0...shire-poll

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Pennsylvania -- Franklin and Marshall College:

Four-way:

Clinton 49
Trump  34
Johnson 7
Stein 3

Two-way:
Clinton 49 - Trump 38...

Katie McGinley seems to have a slight edge, if well within the margin of error, against incumbent Republican Senator Pat Toomey. If Donald Trump really cared about the Republican majority in the US Senate, then he would stay away from such states as Florida, Iowa, New Hampshire, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Senator Toomey will have to win re-election on his own in what is beginning to look like a disastrous year for Republicans in the Presidential race.   
This is not my favorite pollster, and I really have to average this one with the pollby PPP.  
 


Enough said.
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WBUR-TV (New Hampshire Public Television), MassInc

7/29 thru 8/1

Clinton: 47
Trump: 32
Johnson: 8
Stein: 3

Clinton:51
Trump: 34

629 LV

Also, Hassan now leads Ayotte by 50-40.

http://www.wbur.org/politicker/2016/08/0...shire-poll

*************
Pennsylvania -- Franklin and Marshall College:

Four-way:

Clinton 49
Trump  34
Johnson 7
Stein 3

Two-way:
Clinton 49 - Trump 38...

Katie McGinley seems to have a slight edge, if well within the margin of error, against incumbent Republican Senator Pat Toomey. If Donald Trump really cared about the Republican majority in the US Senate, then he would stay away from such states as Florida, Iowa, New Hampshire, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Senator Toomey will have to win re-election on his own in what is beginning to look like a disastrous year for Republicans in the Presidential race.   
This is not my favorite pollster, and I really have to average this one with the poll by PPP.

Addenda: Kentucky, Harper Polling (Republican pollster) -- Trump up 13, but nothing says how he is up 13. Most likely something like 54-41.

FLORIDA, Suffolk University

Clinton 43
Trump 39
Johnson 4
Stein 3

Head to Head
Clinton 48
Trump 42

http://www.suffolk.edu/documents/SUPRC/8...ginals.pdf



Binary race, Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump ®  



Leader up with

60% or more -- saturation 80%
55-59% --     saturation 70%
50-54% --     saturation 60%
46-49%, margin 5% or greater saturation 40%
46-49%, margin 4% or less saturation 20%

(the usual color applies for the partisan leader, but yellow blue to green and red to orange below  

40-45%, margin 5% or greater, saturation 40%
43-45%, margin 4% or less, saturation 20%  

I might give Gary Johnson leads a yellow color. That could also compel me to introduce a new format.


Three-way race, and so far I have no idea how I can change this to be more effective: On second thought, I will simply start over with the three-way race. I have the old polls on another thread anyway.



Johnson support:

16%+: 80
13-15: 70
10-12: 60
7-9: 50
4-6: 40
2-3: 30
0-1: 20
Poll w/ no Libertarian number: clear








Small states and districts in area or with shapes that allow confusion:

FL D4/4;4
NH D15/8,4

Clinton (D)
Trump ®
Johnson (L)