What will happen if Clinton is elected President

[MillsT_98]

(08-04-2016, 12:41 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(08-04-2016, 11:37 AM)X_4AD_84 Wrote: Are you at all aware we are now well within the 4T? You and Rags, with your dated worn out 3T scripts. Sheeesh!

We have not yet had a regeneracy.  Over use of the filibuster has prevented either side from instigating the major changes and trial and error period where the new culture is invented and given a test drive.

Those who are more into a clockwork and generation based interpretation of S&H can look at generation boundaries and see that we should in theory be in crisis mode.  I judge less by the calendar and more by how the society is working.  We're still in stagnation and endless debate mode.  We are not in transformation and change mode.

The books don't clearly define the 3T 4T border, not to my satisfaction at least.  They suggest we can go 4T before the regeneracy.  I'm not entirely happy with this.  S&H weren't entirely consistent in identifying where the boundary is.  Is it the big military catalyst, the Pearl Harbor, Fort Sumpter or Lexington / Concord and the following full mobilization?  Is it the election of the guy who will eventually be recognized as the Grey Champion, along with a Congress that will follow his lead?  Is it the publication of a transforming document, like the Declaration of Independence?

S&H weren't consistent in this.  I suspect they chose whatever event came closest to where their generation borders lined up.

This is in part an argument of definition, a disagreement on the meaning of words.  As such it is fairly trivial.  I personally am uncomfortable saying we are 8 years into a crisis and have not yet hit the regeneracy.  To me, it feels like we are still in stagnant disagreement.  Our politics are 3T politics.

Also, S&H turnings last a generation, on the order of 20 years.  The peak years of a crises or awakenings are shorter.  The intensity and fervor of the religious Great Awakening and Second Great Awakening couldn't be sustained for more than a few years.  The Summer of Love centered a similar period of only a few years when flower power was in full flower.  Similarly, it takes about four years for the United States to fully mobilize, learn how wars have to be fought given new technology, then crush any military opposition.  Crisis wars run about half a decade.  Thus it is plausible to say the mood of a culture can last longer than the 20ish year scheduled calendar idea of how long a turning lasts in theory.  The critical periods of the active turnings -- awakenings and crises -- are brief.  Thus the moods of the less active turnings -- highs and unravellings -- extend long past where the generation borders suggest they should.

Anyway, it would be nice if we could refine the durations of various types of turnings and the key markers than indicate a transition has been made.  To me, it is more important to recognize that we haven't had a regeneracy, that the period of trial and error major transforming change hasn't arrived yet.

I read in Generations that the "social moments" during the 2T and the 4T eras last about 10 years or so. So they're not actually as long as the turnings themselves. I think the next social moment could start next year, or maybe later if the regeneracy takes longer to build. I think we're already in the 4T, but according to Generations, we are still in a very long "inner-driven era".