08-05-2016, 10:25 PM
(08-05-2016, 04:49 PM)X_4AD_84 Wrote:(08-05-2016, 04:11 PM)Mikebert Wrote: Looks like Kinser has jumped the shark into Unskewed Polls territory (these were the folks in 2012 who were *sure* Mittens was ahead and had been all campaign and the polls were biased against him).
The Donald is in trouble. His poll position looks awful right now, but we are still in the choppy period around the conventions. The poll average two weeks after the last convention (i.e. a week from now) will tell where the general election will start. It should be fairly stable after that, barring unexpected events, until the debates, if they happen.
Right now, if nothing changes, it looks more or less like a repeat of 2012 where Clinton wins, but Republicans hold the Senate. However, I have faith in The Donald. I think when the dust settles it will be closer to the 2008 outcome, Clinton will win easily and Dems will just eke out a Senate majority.
I’m not into conspiracy theories, but the folks who say Trump has been in cahoots with Clinton from the start are looking less crazy. I still think they are certainly wrong, but I won’t think of them as loons anymore.
I can understand the appeal of "DT is putting in the fix for HRC."
However, Occam tells me he's what he appears to be - a self centered loon with White Nationalist tendencies who has marshaled a subset of "the volk" to undertake a putsch against a major political party hoping for a sort of national putsch in November. Granted this is an attempt at a "soft" putsch given no mass violence (thus far).
Trump is a classic sociopath, which is not the evil mastermind of popular imagination but an impulsive monster.
#MakeTheDemocratsGreatAgain