08-09-2016, 02:49 AM
The most likely mass of Romney-to-Trump voters include two groups:
1. College-educated white people. Well-educated people are likely to recognize demagogues and the hazards that they pose, and hold them in deep disdain even if they are on the same side of the political spectrum. Educated white voters formed a large part of the Romney vote in Colorado and Virginia, both of which Barack Obama still won decisively in 2012. But Trump will find a big chunk of that vote turning on him.
2. Hispanics (largely Mexican-Americans in Texas and early-wave Cuban-Americans in Florida) more conservative than other Hispanics. Texas' Mexican-Americans have a difference from those outside Texas in that they missed out on the dubious experience of the real-estate crash of the latter part of the Double-Zero decade because Texas, having experienced a similar disaster in the real estate crash of about twenty years ago, had reformed its laws on lending so that people could not get loans for which they were grossly unqualified and were unable to take out second mortgages for consumer spending. Mexican-Americans, the ethnic group swiftest to buy houses as their income approaches middle-class levels, got burned badly in the 2007-2010 real-estate crash in California, Nevada, and Arizona; it will take a long tome for them to forgive a Republican Party which sponsored the corrupt boom in real estate while Dubya was President.
I'm guessing that Hispanics who could still vote for Mitt Romney won't find Donald Trump so acceptable after the vile stuff that he has said about some Hispanics.
That could be the difference between losing Virginia by 8% and losing it by 12%, which is what a recent poll suggests. Note well that the Senate seat in Colorado of incumbent Democratic Senator Bennett has gone out of reach for the challenger after having seemed vulnerable.
Again, so what will it matter whether Hillary Clinton wins Colorado by 12% instead of by 8% (which may be what I see soon, in view of the swing of Arizona which has some parallels to Colorado? Nothing.
![[Image: CpQ-2xZUsAATbv5.jpg]](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CpQ-2xZUsAATbv5.jpg)
Educated white voters were much of the Republican vote in Connecticut, Illinois, Maryland, and Massachusetts -- but any swing from Romney to Clinton will also be moot. There just aren't enough Republicans to swing. Guessing that well-educated Republicans in Hawaii and West Virginia are small parts of the Republican vote in both states for opposite reasons (Hawaii is majority-minority and has few Republicans; West Virginia is toward the bottom in educational achievement, and has few Democrats), I figure that a swing in Hawaii is likely moot and any swing in West Virginia will help Donald Trump. I have seen polls of Nevada suggesting a statistical tie -- but Nevada is also toward the bottom in educational achievement, and Democratic voters in Nevada are heavily minorities concentrated in Greater Las Vegas and Greater Reno. Ranching, mining, and casino-related services do not need educated workers in great numbers. Donald Trump might fare better than Mitt Romney there.
But -- most polls indicate that Hillary Clinton has a bigger lead than the margin of Barack Obama in 2008; Obama was gaining at the end in what had seemed like a close election until the last few weeks. Depending on your taste, Hillary Clinton is up from high single digits to low-double digits. So whence comes her swing?
1. College-educated white people. Well-educated people are likely to recognize demagogues and the hazards that they pose, and hold them in deep disdain even if they are on the same side of the political spectrum. Educated white voters formed a large part of the Romney vote in Colorado and Virginia, both of which Barack Obama still won decisively in 2012. But Trump will find a big chunk of that vote turning on him.
2. Hispanics (largely Mexican-Americans in Texas and early-wave Cuban-Americans in Florida) more conservative than other Hispanics. Texas' Mexican-Americans have a difference from those outside Texas in that they missed out on the dubious experience of the real-estate crash of the latter part of the Double-Zero decade because Texas, having experienced a similar disaster in the real estate crash of about twenty years ago, had reformed its laws on lending so that people could not get loans for which they were grossly unqualified and were unable to take out second mortgages for consumer spending. Mexican-Americans, the ethnic group swiftest to buy houses as their income approaches middle-class levels, got burned badly in the 2007-2010 real-estate crash in California, Nevada, and Arizona; it will take a long tome for them to forgive a Republican Party which sponsored the corrupt boom in real estate while Dubya was President.
I'm guessing that Hispanics who could still vote for Mitt Romney won't find Donald Trump so acceptable after the vile stuff that he has said about some Hispanics.
That could be the difference between losing Virginia by 8% and losing it by 12%, which is what a recent poll suggests. Note well that the Senate seat in Colorado of incumbent Democratic Senator Bennett has gone out of reach for the challenger after having seemed vulnerable.
Again, so what will it matter whether Hillary Clinton wins Colorado by 12% instead of by 8% (which may be what I see soon, in view of the swing of Arizona which has some parallels to Colorado? Nothing.
Educated white voters were much of the Republican vote in Connecticut, Illinois, Maryland, and Massachusetts -- but any swing from Romney to Clinton will also be moot. There just aren't enough Republicans to swing. Guessing that well-educated Republicans in Hawaii and West Virginia are small parts of the Republican vote in both states for opposite reasons (Hawaii is majority-minority and has few Republicans; West Virginia is toward the bottom in educational achievement, and has few Democrats), I figure that a swing in Hawaii is likely moot and any swing in West Virginia will help Donald Trump. I have seen polls of Nevada suggesting a statistical tie -- but Nevada is also toward the bottom in educational achievement, and Democratic voters in Nevada are heavily minorities concentrated in Greater Las Vegas and Greater Reno. Ranching, mining, and casino-related services do not need educated workers in great numbers. Donald Trump might fare better than Mitt Romney there.
But -- most polls indicate that Hillary Clinton has a bigger lead than the margin of Barack Obama in 2008; Obama was gaining at the end in what had seemed like a close election until the last few weeks. Depending on your taste, Hillary Clinton is up from high single digits to low-double digits. So whence comes her swing?
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.