2016 Polling Thread

[pbrower2a]

New York State, Siena (as if there were a mystery this year)

2-way:

57% Clinton
27% Trump
  3% Other (vol.)

4-way:

50% Clinton
25% Trump
  9% Johnson
  6% Stein
  1% Other (vol.)

https://www.siena.edu/news-events/articl...-30-points


Washington State, Elway:

Clinton 45
Trump 24
Johnson 7
Stein 4

https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/...81516.html

...45-21 with a Likely Voter screen that in most elections favors Republican candidates for just about any office. I'm going with that.

...Clinton+Johnson+Stein vote adds up to 54, so this lead is practically insurmountable.  

Binary race, Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump ®  



Leader up with

60% or more -- saturation 80%
55-59% --     saturation 70%
50-54% --     saturation 60%
46-49%, margin 4% or greater saturation 40%
46-49%, margin 3% or less saturation 20%

(the usual color applies for the partisan leader, but yellow blue to green and red to orange below  

40-45%, margin 4% or greater, saturation 40%
43-45%, margin 3% or less, saturation 20%  

New Hampshire is an average.






Small states and districts in area or with shapes that allow confusion:

FL D4/4;4
ME D 10/10; 4
NH D15/8,4

Clinton (D)
Trump ®
Johnson (L)

The nature of this election cycle must change dramatically for Donald Trump to have any chance of victory.