2016 Polling Thread

[pbrower2a]

Here's all that you really need to know about the 2015 election at this stage.

The "Blue firewall", 1992-2012, in 2016 (mostly in ruby red as in the source):




Strong Clinton (60% saturation) 242
Weak Clinton  (40% saturation)     0
Barely Clinton  (20% saturation)    1
Effective tie   (white)                       0
Barely Trump (20% saturation)       0
Weak Trump  (40% saturation)       0  
Strong Trump (60% saturation)      0

The Second Congressional District of Maine might be a bit shaky.

Add the states that have gone once for any Republican nominee since 1992 (IA, NH, NM):



(my cautious guess on New Mexico, based on its demographics and paucity of polls)

Strong Clinton (60% saturation) 245
Weak Clinton  (40% saturation)     5
Barely Clinton  (20% saturation)    1
Effective tie   (white)                       6
Barely Trump (20% saturation)       0
Weak Trump  (40% saturation)       0  
Strong Trump (60% saturation)      0

I can't figure Donald Trump's appeal in Iowa.

Add Colorado and Virginia, which so far show decisive leads for Clinton:



(my cautious guess on New Mexico, based on its demographics)

Strong Clinton (60% saturation) 267
Weak Clinton  (40% saturation)     5
Barely Clinton  (20% saturation)    1
Effective tie   (white)                       6
Barely Trump (20% saturation)       0
Weak Trump  (40% saturation)       0  
Strong Trump (60% saturation)      0

My criterion for "strong" is 8%, twice the margin of error.
My criterion for "weak" is 4%, basically the margin of error.

270 wins. That's before I bring up North Carolina, Ohio, or Florida. Or for that matter, Arizona, Georgia, Indiana, and Missouri.