08-16-2016, 02:05 PM
Now we can discuss states that seem to have some potential for swing. I just saw a poll with Clinton up by 9 in Florida, but I have seen several with her very close, too. I can call Florida "Weak Clinton", figuring that she is probably up 5%
![[Image: genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...NE3=0;99;6]](http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_p=1&type=calc&AL=0;;6&AK=0;;4&AZ=1;;2&AR=0;;2&CA=1;;6&CO=1;;6&CT=1;;6&DE=1;;6&DC=1;;5&FL=1;;4&GA=2;;4&HI=1;;6&ID=0;;6&IL=1;;6&IN=4;;1&IA=4;;1&KS=2;;4&KY=0;;6&LA=0;;5&MD=1;;6&MA=1;;6&MI=1;;6&MN=1;;6&MS=0;;5&MO=2;;2&MT=0;;5&NV=1;;2&NH=1;;6&NJ=1;;6&NM=1;;4;;4&NY=1;;6&NC=1;;4&ND=0;;5&OH=1;;2&OK=0;;6&OR=1;;6&PA=1;;6&RI=1;;6&SC=2;;2&SD=0;;5&TN=0;;5&TX=2;;4&UT=0;;7&VT=1;;6&VA=1;;6&WA=1;;6&WV=0;;6&WI=1;;6&WY=0;;6&ME=1;;5&ME1=1;X;6&ME2=1;X;2&NE=0;;5&NE1=0;X;9&NE2=0;X;9&NE3=0;99;6)
Strong Clinton (60% saturation) 267
Weak Clinton (40% saturation) 49
Barely Clinton (20% saturation) 37
Effective tie (white) 17
Barely Trump (20% saturation) 19
Weak Trump (40% saturation) 62
Strong Trump (60% saturation) (not showing)
My criterion for "strong" is 8%, twice the margin of error.
My criterion for "weak" is 4%, basically the margin of error.
No, I am not looking to see what states will still go resolutely for Donald Trump. In view of Texas looking as if it might be competitive this year when it has not been competitive for Democrats since 1996, I am unsure of what those states would be. I have seen some weird polling results in Utah in the Presidential race even though the Republicans are simply crushing Democrats in statewide elections. The only electoral vote in states in gray that an objective analyst can see going possibly to Hillary Clinton this year is that of the Second Congressional District of Nebraska. But this is not a reasonable year.
If there is any apparent momentum in this election, then it is that Donald Trump is digging himself into a deeper hole when he should be trying to get out of it. That's what happens when one delivers insults like Don Rickles, only turning the insults en masse against such people as accountants, letter carriers, nurses, and schoolteachers. But Don "Mister Warmth" Rickles makes his jokes about the high-and-mighty in Hollywood, people with inflated egos who need to have their egos deflated. (A hint, Mr. Rickles: try Charlie Sheen!) But such common people as accountants, letter carriers, nurses, and schoolteachers often have their bosses deflating their egos. Honest work for modest pay has a way of enforcing humility, and people who do such work don't need Donald Trump insulting their intelligence.
Strong Clinton (60% saturation) 267
Weak Clinton (40% saturation) 49
Barely Clinton (20% saturation) 37
Effective tie (white) 17
Barely Trump (20% saturation) 19
Weak Trump (40% saturation) 62
Strong Trump (60% saturation) (not showing)
My criterion for "strong" is 8%, twice the margin of error.
My criterion for "weak" is 4%, basically the margin of error.
No, I am not looking to see what states will still go resolutely for Donald Trump. In view of Texas looking as if it might be competitive this year when it has not been competitive for Democrats since 1996, I am unsure of what those states would be. I have seen some weird polling results in Utah in the Presidential race even though the Republicans are simply crushing Democrats in statewide elections. The only electoral vote in states in gray that an objective analyst can see going possibly to Hillary Clinton this year is that of the Second Congressional District of Nebraska. But this is not a reasonable year.
If there is any apparent momentum in this election, then it is that Donald Trump is digging himself into a deeper hole when he should be trying to get out of it. That's what happens when one delivers insults like Don Rickles, only turning the insults en masse against such people as accountants, letter carriers, nurses, and schoolteachers. But Don "Mister Warmth" Rickles makes his jokes about the high-and-mighty in Hollywood, people with inflated egos who need to have their egos deflated. (A hint, Mr. Rickles: try Charlie Sheen!) But such common people as accountants, letter carriers, nurses, and schoolteachers often have their bosses deflating their egos. Honest work for modest pay has a way of enforcing humility, and people who do such work don't need Donald Trump insulting their intelligence.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.