08-16-2016, 04:25 PM
Now consider states that are or have been swing states in recent years -- or might be this year. A credible poll has Trump up by only 6%. Anything under 8% suggests a legitimate swing state. With what I have since the Conventions:
Hillary Clinton in reddish shades; Donald Trump in bluish shades
![[Image: genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...NE3=0;99;6]](http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_p=1&type=calc&AL=0;;6&AK=0;;4&AZ=1;;2&AR=0;;2&CA=1;;6&CO=1;;6&CT=1;;6&DE=1;;6&DC=1;;5&FL=1;;4&GA=2;;4&HI=1;;6&ID=0;;6&IL=1;;6&IN=4;;1&IA=4;;1&KS=2;;4&KY=0;;6&LA=0;;5&MD=1;;6&MA=1;;6&MI=1;;6&MN=1;;6&MS=0;;5&MO=2;;2&MT=0;;5&NV=1;;2&NH=1;;6&NJ=1;;6&NM=1;;4;;4&NY=1;;6&NC=1;;4&ND=0;;5&OH=1;;2&OK=0;;6&OR=1;;6&PA=1;;6&RI=1;;6&SC=2;;2&SD=0;;5&TN=0;;5&TX=2;;4&UT=0;;7&VT=1;;6&VA=1;;6&WA=1;;6&WV=0;;6&WI=1;;6&WY=0;;6&ME=1;;5&ME1=1;X;6&ME2=1;X;2&NE=0;;5&NE1=0;X;9&NE2=0;X;9&NE3=0;99;6)
Strong Clinton (60% saturation) 267
Weak Clinton (40% saturation) 49
Barely Clinton (20% saturation) 37
Effective tie (white) 17
Barely Trump (20% saturation) 19
Weak Trump (40% saturation) 62
Strong Trump (60% saturation) (not showing)
My criterion for "strong" is 8%, twice the margin of error.
My criterion for "weak" is 4%, basically the margin of error.
No, I am not looking to see what states will still go resolutely for Donald Trump. In view of Texas looking as if it might be competitive this year when it has not been competitive for Democrats since 1996, I am unsure of what those states would be. I have seen some weird polling results in Utah in the Presidential race even though the Republicans are simply crushing Democrats in statewide elections.
If there is any apparent momentum, then it is that Donald Trump is digging himself into a deeper hole when he should be trying to get out of it. That's what happens when one delivers insults like Don Rickles, only turning the insults en masse against such people as accountants, letter carriers, nurses, and schoolteachers. But Don "Mister Warmth" Rickles makes his jokes about the high-and-mighty in Hollywood, people with inflated egos who need to have their egos deflated. (A hint, Mr. Rickles: try Charlie Sheen! He can use the needling!) But such common people as accountants, letter carriers, nurses, and schoolteachers often have their bosses deflating their egos. Honest work for modest pay has a way of enforcing humility, and people who do such work don't need Donald Trump insulting their intelligence. and thus credibility.
Hillary Clinton in reddish shades; Donald Trump in bluish shades
Strong Clinton (60% saturation) 267
Weak Clinton (40% saturation) 49
Barely Clinton (20% saturation) 37
Effective tie (white) 17
Barely Trump (20% saturation) 19
Weak Trump (40% saturation) 62
Strong Trump (60% saturation) (not showing)
My criterion for "strong" is 8%, twice the margin of error.
My criterion for "weak" is 4%, basically the margin of error.
No, I am not looking to see what states will still go resolutely for Donald Trump. In view of Texas looking as if it might be competitive this year when it has not been competitive for Democrats since 1996, I am unsure of what those states would be. I have seen some weird polling results in Utah in the Presidential race even though the Republicans are simply crushing Democrats in statewide elections.
If there is any apparent momentum, then it is that Donald Trump is digging himself into a deeper hole when he should be trying to get out of it. That's what happens when one delivers insults like Don Rickles, only turning the insults en masse against such people as accountants, letter carriers, nurses, and schoolteachers. But Don "Mister Warmth" Rickles makes his jokes about the high-and-mighty in Hollywood, people with inflated egos who need to have their egos deflated. (A hint, Mr. Rickles: try Charlie Sheen! He can use the needling!) But such common people as accountants, letter carriers, nurses, and schoolteachers often have their bosses deflating their egos. Honest work for modest pay has a way of enforcing humility, and people who do such work don't need Donald Trump insulting their intelligence. and thus credibility.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.