2021: generational tipping point

[pbrower2a]

(01-17-2021, 12:11 PM)jleagans Wrote:

(01-17-2021, 01:57 AM)pbrower2a Wrote:

(01-16-2021, 08:59 AM)jleagans Wrote: Hahahahahahahah.  "Gen X takeover of leadership"

Not happening, sorry.  The two dominant generations (Hero and Prophet) are the only ones that ever control society.  The war between the two is the defining dynamic of the generational system.  Look at the Boomers, their first half was a war against the GI Gen to get control (which happens around the midpoint of life, which was the 1980's and Reagan for Boomers) and their second half has been an escalating war with Millennials more and more demanding control.  And as Millennials are all hitting their midpoint that control is soon to come.  

The smaller generations (Silent and Nomad) never get control, and their only shot at Presidents comes at the TRANSITION from Hero to Prophet or Prophet to Hero.

FDR to Eisenhower all Prophet generation (1933-1960).  28 years of control.
JFK to George H. W. Bush were all Hero GI Generation (1961-1992) .  32 years of control.
Bill Clinton to Trump were all Prophet Boomer Generation (1993-2020).  28 years of control.

While the boundary years from the older generation are still pretty unclear, when I tried to map it out the last time I couldnt find a single President that was a clear Nomad (roughly 1890's/1900's).

Artist Presidents: 1920-1932, 2020+.  Harding, Coolidge, Hoover, Biden. The Artist generation has done a bit better, but they only seem to be able to win after pandemics by making a "return to normalcy" appeal!  And none of them have pulled two terms.

It's not small numbers; it is that the recessive (Artist/Adaptive, Nomad/Reactive) get fewer opportunities as a rule in politics. Until 2020 it was likely that the Silent generation would be skipped completely in the roster of Presidents

The more canonical position of Howe and Strauss is as such:

Washington, John Adams (Liberty: Reactive/Nomad)
Jefferson, Madison, Monroe (Republic: Civic/Hero)
J Q Adams, Jackson, Van Buren, W H Harrison Tyler (Compromise: Adaptive/Artist)
Polk (Transcendental: Idealist/Prophet)
Fillmore, Pierce: Idealist/Prophet)
Buchanan: Compromise, Artist/Adapive)
Lincoln, A. Johnson: Idealist/Prophet)
Grant, Hayes, Garfield, Arthur, Cleveland, B. Harrison, Cleveland [second time] Gilded: Reactive/Nomad*)
McKinley, T. Roosevelt, Taft, Wilson: (Progressive: Adaptive/Artist
Harding, Coolidge, Hoover, FDR (Missionary: Idealist/Prophet)
Truman, Eisenhower (Lost: Reactive/Nomad)
Kennedy, LBJ, Nixon, Ford, Carter, Reagan, Bush 41 (GI: Civic/Hero)
Clinton, Bush 43 (Boom: Idealist/Prophet)
Obama (X: Reactive/Nomad)
Trump (Boom: Idealist/Prophet)

Should Trump be impeached and expelled or resign before Wednesday, Pence would be another Boomer.

as of Wednesday... Biden (Silent: Adaptive/Artist)



*The Gilded were brought up as Reactive/Nomad, but they took on a largely Civic/Hero role after the Civil War)

Yeah I don't agree at all with Strauss Howe's dates as they never make an argument for the dates they select, they just picked arbitrarily.

I use dates based on changes in national attitudes and fit the generations into 16-20 year ranges:

Turning boundaries:

1877-Compromise-End of Civil War 4th Turning / 1st American Saeculum

1890's- Turning, either the panic or the 1896 election haven't decided

1908-1912- Not yet sure which year works best

1929

1945

1963- Start of X, JFK assassination leads to broader societal cynicism. 

1982-End of Stagflation leads to a new boom and economic optimism

2001- 9/11

Each of these years was a major, turning-long change in national attitudes.

...can anyone tell me if there was a financial panic in the Colonies in the early 1770's? 

I see Panics of 1857, 1929, and 2008 precipitating a grim mood of a Crisis.  People can tolerate much social and political nastiness when easy money is seemingly easy to get by the simple practice of speculation and not enterprise, productivity, or innovation.  The arch-conservative economist Friedrich Hayek (1898-1992) explained clearly that speculative bubbles do not so much create wealth as they devour it.  Prices rise more rapidly than economic growth, the latter already faltering because people are not investing as much in job-creating and product-supplying plant and equipment. Any speculative bubble depends upon the assumption that there will be one last buyer who will justify the last buyer-in. Any commodity can be overpriced, and when it is there may be a throng of sellers and no buyers. 

Hayek says that it is not the panic that causes the disaster; the panic is simply the realization that the speculative boom is illusory and that the good feelings that come from it are void. People who thought themselves rich find that their assets have crashed in value. Commodity valuations, real estate, and share prices are especially vulnerable. 

With the panic comes the sudden realization that society is not so prosperous as it had been.  The assets needed for putting people back to work through investments in commercial plant and equipment, in human capital, and in public infrastructure, are gone. Entities that have accreted bad habits such as bureaucracy and internal corruption can't divest themselves rapidly enough of those, and often go bankrupt instead. 

...at this point Hayek doesn't have a solution to my liking... just accept the harsh reality and the permanent lowering of expectations.
 
Public works make sense. A  depression is a surprisingly good time for starting a business because labor (including that of the owner-operator and his family) is cheap. Real estate is available for low rents or acquisition costs. Supplies, raw materials, and inventory are available at fire-sale prices without the fire. If you hire people then the family members of that employee are likely to become loyal customers because they want that person to keep his job. Customer loyalty reappears. Owners will have perhaps a decade or two before they can cash out...  but few people are rich.