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2021: generational tipping point
#21
(01-10-2021, 06:23 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: The American right (the vast majority of today's Republican base) doesn't hate Trump. The Washington elite do but no one on the American right cares about them these days. Like I said, let the circus begin and see the response and see how much of the Democratic base is left standing after four years of turmoil.

Indeed, it was Lindsey Graham who got greeted with calls of "traitor" by Republican voters at the airport, for voting against sustaining the electoral vote objection, not Hawley for making the objections.  Graham quickly did one of his about faces and came out against impeachment.

I wouldn't count on turmoil on the left, though, with the Democrats now cleanly controlled by Apple, Facebook, and Google.  A return to the Obama years of economic misery yes, but I expect the Fed will continue to support unrealistic stock market valuations.  Or did you mean turmoil from increasingly uninhibited MAGA rallies?

Biden got elected through electoral fraud and as President, he's in a position to make sure fraud is even easier next time around, so he'll be elected.  If you're one of the few on the right who don't believe in electoral fraud, the video on midnight ballot counting has been censored but here's an independent source of analysis:

https://www.theamericanconservative.com/...emorandum/
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#22
The Obama years were economic hardship, but remember that those followed the worst economic downturn in 75 to 80 years. A speculative boom with rising inequality and underinvestment in plant and equipment ensures a financial panic (as in 1857, 1929, and 2008:

[Image: saupload_four-bears.png]

There is no easy way out of the consequences of such a meltdown. Obama did what was necessary, backing the banks to prevent what made the 1929-1932 meltdown so destructive. The first year and a half from the 2007 peak looks remarkably similar to the first year and a half of the 1929-1932 meltdown. The difference was the bank runs that devoured savings that could have been used to back investment in plant and equipment and corporate bank balances that paid the accounts payable.

The American economy grew its way out of the economic meltdown in the 1930's and 2010's. Of course it was hard, and even if the political mood went sharply left in the first two years of the Obama administration, the political mood went sharply to the Right soon after that. The focus of the economy after 2010 was that any improvement in the economy would have the enrichment of economic elites as the first objective, and anything in the way of that would yield.  The big difference between the 1930's and the 2010's was that the economic elites got rescued far earlier. In the 1930's they couldn't invest in the political process to achieve their ends. In the 2010's the economic elites had the funds with which to buy the political process, and that is how we got the Tea Party in Congress and its Presidential expression in Donald Trump.

[Image: 5aa5bd2bb4b9a7039e4d5f0030f7a4d8.png]

OK, much of the political distress that we have had reflects the personality of Donald Trump... which I could say of political distress in Venezuela.  But note well: the economic growth that we have had is largely in higher share prices, higher corporate profits, higher compensation to business executives, higher medical costs, and (where the economy is at all vibrant) property rents. Ideally some of the economic boon for economic elites would trickle down, but that would require conspicuous consumption by economic elites -- castles and palaces, basically, with huge staffs of domestic servants. It's not appearing as 'plant and equipment'.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#23
(01-10-2021, 06:46 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: You don't know her very well. You should know everything about her since she was the one that you were really voting for in 2020. You listened, you agreed and you didn't care that Biden was showing signs of dementia and voted for him anyway.

Biden stutters, but I don't see dementia. Of course, in alt-reality it's undeniable.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
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#24
Hahahahahahahah. "Gen X takeover of leadership"

Not happening, sorry. The two dominant generations (Hero and Prophet) are the only ones that ever control society. The war between the two is the defining dynamic of the generational system. Look at the Boomers, their first half was a war against the GI Gen to get control (which happens around the midpoint of life, which was the 1980's and Reagan for Boomers) and their second half has been an escalating war with Millennials more and more demanding control. And as Millennials are all hitting their midpoint that control is soon to come.

The smaller generations (Silent and Nomad) never get control, and their only shot at Presidents comes at the TRANSITION from Hero to Prophet or Prophet to Hero.

FDR to Eisenhower all Prophet generation (1933-1960). 28 years of control.
JFK to George H. W. Bush were all Hero GI Generation (1961-1992) . 32 years of control.
Bill Clinton to Trump were all Prophet Boomer Generation (1993-2020). 28 years of control.

While the boundary years from the older generation are still pretty unclear, when I tried to map it out the last time I couldnt find a single President that was a clear Nomad (roughly 1890's/1900's).

Artist Presidents: 1920-1932, 2020+. Harding, Coolidge, Hoover, Biden. The Artist generation has done a bit better, but they only seem to be able to win after pandemics by making a "return to normalcy" appeal! And none of them have pulled two terms.
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#25
Joe Biden will be the first Artist/Adaptive President in a century.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#26
(01-16-2021, 08:59 AM)jleagans Wrote: The war between the two is the defining dynamic of the generational system.  
And that's why we hate you both  Tongue
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#27
(01-16-2021, 08:59 AM)jleagans Wrote: Hahahahahahahah.  "Gen X takeover of leadership"

Not happening, sorry.  The two dominant generations (Hero and Prophet) are the only ones that ever control society.  The war between the two is the defining dynamic of the generational system.  Look at the Boomers, their first half was a war against the GI Gen to get control (which happens around the midpoint of life, which was the 1980's and Reagan for Boomers) and their second half has been an escalating war with Millennials more and more demanding control.  And as Millennials are all hitting their midpoint that control is soon to come.  

The smaller generations (Silent and Nomad) never get control, and their only shot at Presidents comes at the TRANSITION from Hero to Prophet or Prophet to Hero.

FDR to Eisenhower all Prophet generation (1933-1960).  28 years of control.
JFK to George H. W. Bush were all Hero GI Generation (1961-1992) .  32 years of control.
Bill Clinton to Trump were all Prophet Boomer Generation (1993-2020).  28 years of control.

While the boundary years from the older generation are still pretty unclear, when I tried to map it out the last time I couldnt find a single President that was a clear Nomad (roughly 1890's/1900's).

Artist Presidents: 1920-1932, 2020+.  Harding, Coolidge, Hoover, Biden. The Artist generation has done a bit better, but they only seem to be able to win after pandemics by making a "return to normalcy" appeal!  And none of them have pulled two terms.

It's not small numbers; it is that the recessive (Artist/Adaptive, Nomad/Reactive) get fewer opportunities as a rule in politics. Until 2020 it was likely that the Silent generation would be skipped completely in the roster of Presidents

The more canonical position of Howe and Strauss is as such:

Washington, John Adams (Liberty: Reactive/Nomad)
Jefferson, Madison, Monroe (Republic: Civic/Hero)
J Q Adams, Jackson, Van Buren, W H Harrison Tyler (Compromise: Adaptive/Artist)
Polk (Transcendental: Idealist/Prophet)
Fillmore, Pierce: Idealist/Prophet)
Buchanan: Compromise, Artist/Adapive)
Lincoln, A. Johnson: Idealist/Prophet)
Grant, Hayes, Garfield, Arthur, Cleveland, B. Harrison, Cleveland [second time] Gilded: Reactive/Nomad*)
McKinley, T. Roosevelt, Taft, Wilson: (Progressive: Adaptive/Artist
Harding, Coolidge, Hoover, FDR (Missionary: Idealist/Prophet)
Truman, Eisenhower (Lost: Reactive/Nomad)
Kennedy, LBJ, Nixon, Ford, Carter, Reagan, Bush 41 (GI: Civic/Hero)
Clinton, Bush 43 (Boom: Idealist/Prophet)
Obama (X: Reactive/Nomad)
Trump (Boom: Idealist/Prophet)

Should Trump be impeached and expelled or resign before Wednesday, Pence would be another Boomer.

as of Wednesday... Biden (Silent: Adaptive/Artist)



*The Gilded were brought up as Reactive/Nomad, but they took on a largely Civic/Hero role after the Civil War)
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#28
(01-16-2021, 03:31 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: Joe Biden will be the first Artist/Adaptive President in a century.

... and prior examples are not inspiring.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
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#29
(01-16-2021, 04:36 PM)mamabug Wrote:
(01-16-2021, 08:59 AM)jleagans Wrote: The war between the two is the defining dynamic of the generational system.  
And that's why we hate you both  Tongue

Oh yeah, and our total ambivalence towards the other two generations that aren't Boomers doesn't help.  We only pay attention to Zoomers/X to use them or complain about them.
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#30
(01-17-2021, 01:57 AM)pbrower2a Wrote:
(01-16-2021, 08:59 AM)jleagans Wrote: Hahahahahahahah.  "Gen X takeover of leadership"

Not happening, sorry.  The two dominant generations (Hero and Prophet) are the only ones that ever control society.  The war between the two is the defining dynamic of the generational system.  Look at the Boomers, their first half was a war against the GI Gen to get control (which happens around the midpoint of life, which was the 1980's and Reagan for Boomers) and their second half has been an escalating war with Millennials more and more demanding control.  And as Millennials are all hitting their midpoint that control is soon to come.  

The smaller generations (Silent and Nomad) never get control, and their only shot at Presidents comes at the TRANSITION from Hero to Prophet or Prophet to Hero.

FDR to Eisenhower all Prophet generation (1933-1960).  28 years of control.
JFK to George H. W. Bush were all Hero GI Generation (1961-1992) .  32 years of control.
Bill Clinton to Trump were all Prophet Boomer Generation (1993-2020).  28 years of control.

While the boundary years from the older generation are still pretty unclear, when I tried to map it out the last time I couldnt find a single President that was a clear Nomad (roughly 1890's/1900's).

Artist Presidents: 1920-1932, 2020+.  Harding, Coolidge, Hoover, Biden. The Artist generation has done a bit better, but they only seem to be able to win after pandemics by making a "return to normalcy" appeal!  And none of them have pulled two terms.

It's not small numbers; it is that the recessive (Artist/Adaptive, Nomad/Reactive) get fewer opportunities as a rule in politics. Until 2020 it was likely that the Silent generation would be skipped completely in the roster of Presidents

The more canonical position of Howe and Strauss is as such:

Washington, John Adams (Liberty: Reactive/Nomad)
Jefferson, Madison, Monroe (Republic: Civic/Hero)
J Q Adams, Jackson, Van Buren, W H Harrison Tyler (Compromise: Adaptive/Artist)
Polk (Transcendental: Idealist/Prophet)
Fillmore, Pierce: Idealist/Prophet)
Buchanan: Compromise, Artist/Adapive)
Lincoln, A. Johnson: Idealist/Prophet)
Grant, Hayes, Garfield, Arthur, Cleveland, B. Harrison, Cleveland [second time] Gilded: Reactive/Nomad*)
McKinley, T. Roosevelt, Taft, Wilson: (Progressive: Adaptive/Artist
Harding, Coolidge, Hoover, FDR (Missionary: Idealist/Prophet)
Truman, Eisenhower (Lost: Reactive/Nomad)
Kennedy, LBJ, Nixon, Ford, Carter, Reagan, Bush 41 (GI: Civic/Hero)
Clinton, Bush 43 (Boom: Idealist/Prophet)
Obama (X: Reactive/Nomad)
Trump (Boom: Idealist/Prophet)

Should Trump be impeached and expelled or resign before Wednesday, Pence would be another Boomer.

as of Wednesday... Biden (Silent: Adaptive/Artist)



*The Gilded were brought up as Reactive/Nomad, but they took on a largely Civic/Hero role after the Civil War)

Yeah I don't agree at all with Strauss Howe's dates as they never make an argument for the dates they select, they just picked arbitrarily.

I use dates based on changes in national attitudes and fit the generations into 16-20 year ranges:

Turning boundaries:

1877-Compromise-End of Civil War 4th Turning / 1st American Saeculum

1890's- Turning, either the panic or the 1896 election haven't decided

1908-1912- Not yet sure which year works best

1929

1945

1963- Start of X, JFK assassination leads to broader societal cynicism. 

1982-End of Stagflation leads to a new boom and economic optimism

2001- 9/11

Each of these years was a major, turning-long change in national attitudes.
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#31
(01-17-2021, 12:11 PM)jleagans Wrote:
(01-17-2021, 01:57 AM)pbrower2a Wrote:
(01-16-2021, 08:59 AM)jleagans Wrote: Hahahahahahahah.  "Gen X takeover of leadership"

Not happening, sorry.  The two dominant generations (Hero and Prophet) are the only ones that ever control society.  The war between the two is the defining dynamic of the generational system.  Look at the Boomers, their first half was a war against the GI Gen to get control (which happens around the midpoint of life, which was the 1980's and Reagan for Boomers) and their second half has been an escalating war with Millennials more and more demanding control.  And as Millennials are all hitting their midpoint that control is soon to come.  

The smaller generations (Silent and Nomad) never get control, and their only shot at Presidents comes at the TRANSITION from Hero to Prophet or Prophet to Hero.

FDR to Eisenhower all Prophet generation (1933-1960).  28 years of control.
JFK to George H. W. Bush were all Hero GI Generation (1961-1992) .  32 years of control.
Bill Clinton to Trump were all Prophet Boomer Generation (1993-2020).  28 years of control.

While the boundary years from the older generation are still pretty unclear, when I tried to map it out the last time I couldnt find a single President that was a clear Nomad (roughly 1890's/1900's).

Artist Presidents: 1920-1932, 2020+.  Harding, Coolidge, Hoover, Biden. The Artist generation has done a bit better, but they only seem to be able to win after pandemics by making a "return to normalcy" appeal!  And none of them have pulled two terms.

It's not small numbers; it is that the recessive (Artist/Adaptive, Nomad/Reactive) get fewer opportunities as a rule in politics. Until 2020 it was likely that the Silent generation would be skipped completely in the roster of Presidents

The more canonical position of Howe and Strauss is as such:

Washington, John Adams (Liberty: Reactive/Nomad)
Jefferson, Madison, Monroe (Republic: Civic/Hero)
J Q Adams, Jackson, Van Buren, W H Harrison Tyler (Compromise: Adaptive/Artist)
Polk (Transcendental: Idealist/Prophet)
Fillmore, Pierce: Idealist/Prophet)
Buchanan: Compromise, Artist/Adapive)
Lincoln, A. Johnson: Idealist/Prophet)
Grant, Hayes, Garfield, Arthur, Cleveland, B. Harrison, Cleveland [second time] Gilded: Reactive/Nomad*)
McKinley, T. Roosevelt, Taft, Wilson: (Progressive: Adaptive/Artist
Harding, Coolidge, Hoover, FDR (Missionary: Idealist/Prophet)
Truman, Eisenhower (Lost: Reactive/Nomad)
Kennedy, LBJ, Nixon, Ford, Carter, Reagan, Bush 41 (GI: Civic/Hero)
Clinton, Bush 43 (Boom: Idealist/Prophet)
Obama (X: Reactive/Nomad)
Trump (Boom: Idealist/Prophet)

Should Trump be impeached and expelled or resign before Wednesday, Pence would be another Boomer.

as of Wednesday... Biden (Silent: Adaptive/Artist)



*The Gilded were brought up as Reactive/Nomad, but they took on a largely Civic/Hero role after the Civil War)

Yeah I don't agree at all with Strauss Howe's dates as they never make an argument for the dates they select, they just picked arbitrarily.

I use dates based on changes in national attitudes and fit the generations into 16-20 year ranges:

Turning boundaries:

1877-Compromise-End of Civil War 4th Turning / 1st American Saeculum

1890's- Turning, either the panic or the 1896 election haven't decided

1908-1912- Not yet sure which year works best

1929

1945

1963- Start of X, JFK assassination leads to broader societal cynicism. 

1982-End of Stagflation leads to a new boom and economic optimism

2001- 9/11

Each of these years was a major, turning-long change in national attitudes.

...can anyone tell me if there was a financial panic in the Colonies in the early 1770's? 

I see Panics of 1857, 1929, and 2008 precipitating a grim mood of a Crisis.  People can tolerate much social and political nastiness when easy money is seemingly easy to get by the simple practice of speculation and not enterprise, productivity, or innovation.  The arch-conservative economist Friedrich Hayek (1898-1992) explained clearly that speculative bubbles do not so much create wealth as they devour it.  Prices rise more rapidly than economic growth, the latter already faltering because people are not investing as much in job-creating and product-supplying plant and equipment. Any speculative bubble depends upon the assumption that there will be one last buyer who will justify the last buyer-in. Any commodity can be overpriced, and when it is there may be a throng of sellers and no buyers. 

Hayek says that it is not the panic that causes the disaster; the panic is simply the realization that the speculative boom is illusory and that the good feelings that come from it are void. People who thought themselves rich find that their assets have crashed in value. Commodity valuations, real estate, and share prices are especially vulnerable. 

With the panic comes the sudden realization that society is not so prosperous as it had been.  The assets needed for putting people back to work through investments in commercial plant and equipment, in human capital, and in public infrastructure, are gone. Entities that have accreted bad habits such as bureaucracy and internal corruption can't divest themselves rapidly enough of those, and often go bankrupt instead. 

...at this point Hayek doesn't have a solution to my liking... just accept the harsh reality and the permanent lowering of expectations.
 
Public works make sense. A  depression is a surprisingly good time for starting a business because labor (including that of the owner-operator and his family) is cheap. Real estate is available for low rents or acquisition costs. Supplies, raw materials, and inventory are available at fire-sale prices without the fire. If you hire people then the family members of that employee are likely to become loyal customers because they want that person to keep his job. Customer loyalty reappears. Owners will have perhaps a decade or two before they can cash out...  but few people are rich.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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