My weekend projection (8-20-2016):
![[Image: genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...NE3=0;99;6]](http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_p=1&type=calc&AL=2;;7&AK=0;;4&AZ=1;;2&AR=0;;6&CA=1;;6&CO=1;;6&CT=1;;6&DE=1;;6&DC=1;;5&FL=1;;4&GA=4;;1&HI=1;;6&ID=0;;6&IL=1;;6&IN=2;;7&IA=1;;2&KS=2;;4&KY=2;;7&LA=0;;5&MD=1;;6&MA=1;;6&MI=1;;6&MN=1;;6&MS=2;;7&MO=2;;2&MT=0;;5&NV=1;;2&NH=1;;6&NJ=1;;6&NM=1;;4;;4&NY=1;;6&NC=1;;4&ND=0;;5&OH=1;;2&OK=2;;7&OR=1;;6&PA=1;;6&RI=1;;6&SC=2;;2&SD=0;;5&TN=2;;7&TX=2;;4&UT=0;;7&VT=1;;6&VA=1;;6&WA=1;;6&WV=0;;6&WI=1;;6&WY=0;;6&ME=1;;5&ME1=1;X;6&ME2=1;X;2&NE=0;;5&NE1=0;X;9&NE2=0;X;9&NE3=0;99;6)
(my cautious guess on New Mexico, based on its demographics)
Strong Clinton (60% saturation) 267
Weak Clinton (40% saturation) 49
Barely Clinton (20% saturation) 39
Effective tie (white) 16
Barely Trump (20% saturation) 19
Weak Trump (40% saturation) 44
Strong Trump (70% saturation) 42
My criterion for "strong" is 8%, twice the margin of error.
My criterion for "weak" is 4%, basically the margin of error.
I have some pre-Convention polls (actually during) in Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, and Oklahoma because those results are likely to stick. I am unlikely to see anything cause me to change this projection by Tuesday.One pollster will show us Utah, which has been incredibly erratic in polling.
The states in gray have no recent poll, and in view of the recent behavior of polls in Utah and the two unusually-close ones for the Presidency in Kansas and Texas (those are my 44 "weak Trump states" I have doubts about lots of states. If Kansas is up only 5 for Trump, then guess how silly it would be to assume that North Dakota, South Dakota, and Nebraska are "safe for Trump". But the states in gray don't really matter except for a Senate seat. States in which Hillary Clinton is up by double the usual margin of error put her very close to 270... and I am very cautious in putting New Mexico in the "Safe Clinton" category. New Mexico just does not get polled often.
Up 8 or more -- Clinton is at 267.
Up 4 or more -- Clinton is at 316.
Up at all -- Clinton is at 355.
Beyond that? Georgia would deliver her a win on the scale of Bill Clinton in the 1990s and just slightly bigger than Obama in 2008.
Trump losing Kansas or Texas indicates a thorough collapse of his campaign. Small margins of projected Trump victories in Kansas and Texas cause me to assume little about most of the states that I show in gray. This map is consistent with Hillary Clinton up with a margin of 10% or so.
(my cautious guess on New Mexico, based on its demographics)
Strong Clinton (60% saturation) 267
Weak Clinton (40% saturation) 49
Barely Clinton (20% saturation) 39
Effective tie (white) 16
Barely Trump (20% saturation) 19
Weak Trump (40% saturation) 44
Strong Trump (70% saturation) 42
My criterion for "strong" is 8%, twice the margin of error.
My criterion for "weak" is 4%, basically the margin of error.
I have some pre-Convention polls (actually during) in Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, and Oklahoma because those results are likely to stick. I am unlikely to see anything cause me to change this projection by Tuesday.One pollster will show us Utah, which has been incredibly erratic in polling.
The states in gray have no recent poll, and in view of the recent behavior of polls in Utah and the two unusually-close ones for the Presidency in Kansas and Texas (those are my 44 "weak Trump states" I have doubts about lots of states. If Kansas is up only 5 for Trump, then guess how silly it would be to assume that North Dakota, South Dakota, and Nebraska are "safe for Trump". But the states in gray don't really matter except for a Senate seat. States in which Hillary Clinton is up by double the usual margin of error put her very close to 270... and I am very cautious in putting New Mexico in the "Safe Clinton" category. New Mexico just does not get polled often.
Up 8 or more -- Clinton is at 267.
Up 4 or more -- Clinton is at 316.
Up at all -- Clinton is at 355.
Beyond that? Georgia would deliver her a win on the scale of Bill Clinton in the 1990s and just slightly bigger than Obama in 2008.
Trump losing Kansas or Texas indicates a thorough collapse of his campaign. Small margins of projected Trump victories in Kansas and Texas cause me to assume little about most of the states that I show in gray. This map is consistent with Hillary Clinton up with a margin of 10% or so.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.