(06-12-2021, 06:30 PM)pbrower2a Wrote:(06-12-2021, 02:39 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: I think the climate crisis might be a big thing in the 2090-2010 4T, but we can also, by getting a few more Republicans out of office in 2022 and keep them from taking the congress back (and hope Kamala Harris is not nominated for president in 2024), turn the trend around; and much innovation after that might stem the growing climate Crisis due to explode in 2090-2010. If we don't act now, then the USA might very well not exist by 2010, or else it will be another people who act to stem the Crisis in 2090-2010. I have the start for this 4T scheduled for about 2087-89.
But really, it's now or never. Just because some people don't realize this, doesn't mean it isn't true. If we don't turn the trend around in this 4T, then I'd say that the climate crisis will not belong to one turning after that, but will be an expanding and ongoing disaster. The tipping point will have been reached in 2030 from which there's no escape. Civilization will then fail in due course. We lazy boomers need to get off our duffs and quit thinking we can postpone the battle to get rid of Republican power, so we can make progress again and end the tide of regression.
AGW will likely be the cause of the Crisis of 2100, and it will determine to a great extent the severity of the Crisis. To be sure, an ecological disaster can lead to wars, revolutions, and genocide. Those will be the consequence of gross neglect of the underlying cause, but that is like saying that smoking causes lung cancer. Simply giving up smoking as one gets the diagnosis of lung cancer is too late.
Zero population growth is the most obvious start. But fuel consumption per person must itself fall. Even "green" energy releases waste heat.
Halfway between now and the start of the next Crisis Era is about 2050, at which time any direct Boomer influence will have practically ended. That's when the youngest reach 90. Indirect? Maybe someone can pen a dystopian novel in which climatic realities shape the political, economic, and military realities. I see famine, plagues, war, pogroms, and revolutions.
We may be past the point of no return for some AGW that will force shifts of climatic belts. Longer growing seasons will be nice for crop yields. So one might get to grow true tropical crops around Orlando, two temperate crops a year around Nashville, three crops in two years around Detroit, and temperate crops around Sudbury. That is if the precipitation and soil nutrients accommodate such. Question: does the semi-desert belt reach plac es like Dallas, Kansas City, and Minneapolis or does it stay put? Then there is inundation of coastal areas.
TFR has been falling for decades, so global ZPG may be a reality during about 2060-ish if the current trends continue.
Given that we may not have enough time to tech our way out of at least some AGW effects, I see the main problems in the upcoming saeculum being how we as humans deal with the AGW effects. I can already bet on the US not wanting to deal with AGW at least within North America through the entire 1T. I expect our 1T will be ate up by the other issues that came to a head during COVID-19. How many people do you know that say things like 'we have enough problems here & now day to day, month to month, let alone AGW/climate change that we may not bear the brunt of for a few more decades'? Those same people may combine that with the reduction in globalisation we currently see in the pandemic.
We may be the richest country in the world, but we may not have the finances or manpower to fix the rest of the world. In a less globalised world, continents may end up deciding to protect their own like fortresses. In such an environment, politics will look scary with a lot of fascism & xenophobia around.
If AGW is the big theme of the next saeculum, what do you think the 4 turnings each will look like?
