06-14-2021, 03:49 AM
(This post was last modified: 06-14-2021, 04:10 AM by Eric the Green.)
(06-13-2021, 08:33 PM)nguyenivy Wrote:(06-12-2021, 06:30 PM)pbrower2a Wrote:(06-12-2021, 02:39 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: I think the climate crisis might be a big thing in the 2090-2010 4T, but we can also, by getting a few more Republicans out of office in 2022 and keep them from taking the congress back (and hope Kamala Harris is not nominated for president in 2024), turn the trend around; and much innovation after that might stem the growing climate Crisis due to explode in 2090-2010. If we don't act now, then the USA might very well not exist by 2010, or else it will be another people who act to stem the Crisis in 2090-2010. I have the start for this 4T scheduled for about 2087-89.
But really, it's now or never. Just because some people don't realize this, doesn't mean it isn't true. If we don't turn the trend around in this 4T, then I'd say that the climate crisis will not belong to one turning after that, but will be an expanding and ongoing disaster. The tipping point will have been reached in 2030 from which there's no escape. Civilization will then fail in due course. We lazy boomers need to get off our duffs and quit thinking we can postpone the battle to get rid of Republican power, so we can make progress again and end the tide of regression.
AGW will likely be the cause of the Crisis of 2100, and it will determine to a great extent the severity of the Crisis. To be sure, an ecological disaster can lead to wars, revolutions, and genocide. Those will be the consequence of gross neglect of the underlying cause, but that is like saying that smoking causes lung cancer. Simply giving up smoking as one gets the diagnosis of lung cancer is too late.
Zero population growth is the most obvious start. But fuel consumption per person must itself fall. Even "green" energy releases waste heat.
Halfway between now and the start of the next Crisis Era is about 2050, at which time any direct Boomer influence will have practically ended. That's when the youngest reach 90. Indirect? Maybe someone can pen a dystopian novel in which climatic realities shape the political, economic, and military realities. I see famine, plagues, war, pogroms, and revolutions.
We may be past the point of no return for some AGW that will force shifts of climatic belts. Longer growing seasons will be nice for crop yields. So one might get to grow true tropical crops around Orlando, two temperate crops a year around Nashville, three crops in two years around Detroit, and temperate crops around Sudbury. That is if the precipitation and soil nutrients accommodate such. Question: does the semi-desert belt reach places like Dallas, Kansas City, and Minneapolis or does it stay put? Then there is inundation of coastal areas.
TFR has been falling for decades, so global ZPG may be a reality during about 2060-ish if the current trends continue.
Given that we may not have enough time to tech our way out of at least some AGW effects, I see the main problems in the upcoming saeculum being how we as humans deal with the AGW effects. I can already bet on the US not wanting to deal with AGW at least within North America through the entire 1T. I expect our 1T will be ate up by the other issues that came to a head during COVID-19. How many people do you know that say things like 'we have enough problems here & now day to day, month to month, let alone AGW/climate change that we may not bear the brunt of for a few more decades'? Those same people may combine that with the reduction in globalisation we currently see in the pandemic.
We may be the richest country in the world, but we may not have the finances or manpower to fix the rest of the world. In a less globalised world, continents may end up deciding to protect their own like fortresses. In such an environment, politics will look scary with a lot of fascism & xenophobia around.
If AGW is the big theme of the next saeculum, what do you think the 4 turnings each will look like?
AGW is already the cause of the current Crisis. It is already upon us, and is already intolerable. It has already caused disasterous revolutions and civil wars, and also contributed largely to the ascendancy of Donald Trump thanks to the immigration crisis.
Population growth is already ebbing. Green energy is MUCH better for not emitting greenhouse gases. Changing the tech is the necessary goal. It is hard only because of inertia and the convenience, wealth and power of the corporations responsible.
Ad I said in bold, the time for blue boomers at act is NOW. "Now" does not mean 2050. That does not mean the effects of global warming will end before then, but it does mean if we don't act NOW (that means now, not 2050), the trend will not be reversed, and so the Crisis of 2100 will be the last Crisis that civilization faces. No, we can't sit back and wait for 2050 OR 2100.
Acronymns give me a headache. Why do people assume that others know them? What is "TFR" (my own expletive not included)
Saying the USA does not want to deal with AGW, is only saying they are not ready to dump Republicans, who are the ones blocking action now for 40 years and counting. So the only question is how long it takes for us to get tired of their behavior. The results of AGW are already coming down on us severely. I don't see any validity in denying this fact.
40 years of regression is ENOUGH! How many more cities in my state must be burned? How many floods and storms must ruin how many more lives? How many deaths does it take till we know, that too many people have died? The answer is blowing in the wind. Gimme Shelter!
We already have so much fascism and xenophobia in our world, almost as much as in the 1930s, that I can't see it getting much worse. Younger generations are already having none of it. The older leaders can suppress the resistance to their authority now, as they are now doing in dozens of countries, but for how much longer? Meanwhile, the march of globalization can in no way be stopped. It has already been the reality for over a century, and the recent trend of denial will soon be overwhelmed.
