Generational Constellation Math For The Current And Next Turning

[David Horn]

(10-25-2021, 04:07 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: I can almost guarantee that 2026-2027 will be the peak of the Crisis. The best we can hope for then is that, amidst the continuing turmoil, probably both domestic and foreign, is that a consensus is building underneath it as the better side wins.

The problem here is the Boomer generation. We are almost evenly split leftish (not all being really left of center, but not right of center either) and right -- more far right than not. That's a hard model for generating concensus.

Eric Wrote:Victory by the blue side will start a successful first turning in circa 2028-29. That will not be a "shock," any more than adopting the Constitution was, or adopting the 13th and 14th amendment was, or founding the UN was. But when we see a similar kind of foundation for a more-inclusive, more-generous, more lawful and ethical society and world being laid down, we will know we have entered a first turning.

For that to happen, there has to be some consistency to the Blue position, and that simply doesn't exist today. It's even hard to imagine in the near term -- 5 years or so. The death of the Fairness Doctrine under Reagan made outright lying fully credible for those interested in winning at all costs, and the right has take that to new extremes, at least here in the US. Worse, the Left is fragmeneted into social and political camps that aren't fully aligned. It's hard to be strong externally if you're weak internally.

Eric Wrote:If the red side wins, then we will have become a nation like the enemies we fought in these other saecula. Will that be a first turning? I doubt it would deserve that title. The USA was there to rescue Dixie in 1865 and Japan and Germany in 1945, and so some kind of first turning could begin at least in Germany and Europe in 1945 thanks to the UN and the Marshall Plan. Maybe the nearest analogy of what a failed/red victory 4T and the next next saeculum would look like for the USA is Dixie after Reconstruction in 1877 up until the 1960s. But even there, the winning side in the civil war came back then to make Dixie a part of America again, even if that was still not enough of a victory to possibly avoid yet another breakaway or victory by the wrong side this time.

In the ACW, the North won the war but the South won the peace -- and for many of the same reasons the left is having trouble getting traction today. For all their talk about individual freedom, folks on the right are completely intolerant of viewpoints other than the default viewpoint de jure -- and they enforce those positions using fear and hate. It's hard to beat that with moral purity and sunshine. A bad outcome is highly likely, but fear-based unanimity does have one weakness: it's brittle. If it cracks at all, it will shatter.