10-25-2021, 11:13 AM
(10-25-2021, 01:46 AM)galaxy Wrote: Arrival at Unraveling constellation:
Oldest GIs reached 80: 1981
Youngest GIs reached 60: 1984
Oldest Silents reached 60: 1985
Youngest Silents reached 40: 1982
Oldest Boomers reached 40: 1983
Youngest Boomers reached 20: 1980
Oldest Xs reached 20: 1981
Youngest Xs born: 1981 (or maybe 1980/1979? there are some 1980/1-borns who seem very Millennial to me).
Arrival at Crisis constellation:
Oldest Silents reached 80: 2005
Youngest Silents reached 60: 2002
Oldest Boomers reached 60: 2003
Youngest Boomers reached 40: 2000
Oldest Xs reached 40: 2001
Youngest Xs reached 20: 2001
Oldest Millennials reached 20: 2002
Youngest Millennials born: 2002, probably
Arrival at High constellation:
Oldest Boomers reach 80: 2023
Youngest Boomers reach 60: 2020
Oldest Xs reach 60: 2021
Youngest Xs reach 40: 2021
Oldest Millennials reach 40: 2022
Youngest Millennials reach 20: 2022
Youngest Homelanders born: 2020, possibly? Unless we have something like a major war or other conflict, the first post-Homelanders will probably be the first who do not remember the pandemic and associated economic and political crises (including those that followed it. A person who remembers 2022 will likely be a Homelander even if the virus itself is mostly no longer an issue by the end of next year).
Basically, long story short, pretty much everything points to 2026-2027 as the earliest likely 1T start date, making this a roughly 18-year turning. This fits with what seems to be a bit of a historical pattern of 4Ts being a little shorter than the others.
Another interesting thing to notice is those dates in the early 2000s decade. It looks like 9/11 just barely avoided starting the 4T, and would have done so if it had happened just a year or two later. I guess that's another hint of an explanation for the "2001-2008 3.5T" phenomenon. It also implies that we could have a "stepwise exit" to this turning, similar to the entrance, if a sufficiently intense event occurs in the next 2-3 years. Some kind of 4.5/0.5T for a lot of the 2020s.
So here's the question then, what should we look for in a likely spark? I imagine if no "bolt from the blue" type event occurs in 2026 or 2027, then the 2028 election could serve as the division (as 1984, 1908, and 1860 did), but a much more interesting discussion is what kind of shock could occur to start a new turning.
Do COVID-19, the Capitol Putsch and the implosion of the Chinese housing market look like sparks? There's plenty of dry tinder and there are plenty of oily rags lying around. All three are bolts from the blue. Nobody saw January 6 coming. Most people that an authoritarian regime in China could command the economy to mitigate an exercise in capitalism at its worst. Mass death from respiratory infections, many of us thought, just did not happen in advanced industrial societies anymore.
I'd love to see the Hard Right implode from COVID-19 (which it botched horrifically) and the Capitol Putsch. 700,000 deaths and counting from a respiratory infection will leave much of America questioning its core beliefs. Well, some found answers to COVID-19 and are doing fine. Some others got catastrophically-wrong answers and are left dead or grieving.
The cycles suggests that we are overdue for a great transformation in public values. The Hard Right has nothing to offer to the rest of America except fear, poverty, and disgrace.
There are now for once people who remember Pearl Harbor Day, 9/11, and the Capitol Putsch. That won't last long, as we are nearly eighty years away from Pearl Harbor Day.
Things can go fast. From Pearl Harbor Day to V-J day was less than four years. Losing sides tend to disintegrate fast. Just think of the demonic Third Reich and the remnant of Mussolini's puppet regime in early 1945 (both ran out of troops), or the Confederacy as it ran out of troops at the Battle of Petersburg. The Japanese in the summer of 1945 were on the brink of a complete economic collapse because the American submarine blockade ensured that the Japanese forces outside Japan could not get munitions from Japan and the foodstuffs looted from the Japanese empire could not reach the Japanese mainland to feed the Japanese making the munitions. It is obvious after the fact, but never before.
COVID-19 kills like a war, and we can easily see which side of the political spectrum is losing.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.