(12-03-2021, 12:47 PM)galaxy Wrote:(12-02-2021, 01:44 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: Thanks for your reply. I am very familiar with EDM, but not with Vine, and not with The Hunger Games. I know the latter is an important part of today's pop culture though. I would not associate with a sub-generation an app that had so short a life as Vine and created a word so unfamiliar to most of us, though.
I don't propose that civil wars cut turnings short. I assume that the anomaly which the authors posit was less anomalous than they claim, and that the civil war 4T stretched at least back to 1850, and that the 2010s were basically the 1850s returned, although I still think we are only at the equivalent of the year 1856, the year of Bleeding Kansas and the violence in the Senate of Sumner-Brooks. Rather than shortening 4Ts, the Civil War and today's Cold Civil War (so-far only cold) relates to the double rhythm, which I associate with the fact that Neptune's orbit is twice that of Uranus, and was an idea that I started here on the original forum long ago.
I promise you every member of this subgeneration is very familiar with the word "yeet," and something need not be long-lasting to leave a long-lasting impact.
The Pearl Harbor attack (1941), 9/11, and the Capitol Putsch were all over in a short time.
Quote:I think it's very unlikely that the Civil War 4T began any earlier than 1857, and the most likely starting point by far is the election of Lincoln in 1860. There is just a very clear turn from inaction to action in the country.
The compromises that kept Americans from shooting at each other over slavery depended upon a generation more intent on salving things than solving things having significant power in the political system. The Compromise Generation aged into irrelevance, and the Panic of 1857 created a foul mood that was not going to be resolved except with a military solution. Just think of how Germans did with politics until the economic meltdown that began in 1929 and became severe in 1931. Germans were looking for scapegoats when solutions that involved give-and-take became irrelevant.
Quote:If the Civil War 4T was longer than five years, it's because it extended beyond the end of the war, possibly as far as the end of Reconstruction in 1877. (The following turnings would presumably be something like 1877-1893, 1893-1912, and 1912-1929).
The Gilded Age begins when people start caring more about getting rich or at least economic survival than about the Civil War. In the South, white people thought that getting rich meant marginalizing black people in politics, economics, and law.
Quote:I've realized since writing my previous post that obviously the 4T must have extended somewhat beyond the Hunger Games revolution, with the comparison in our world being Tunisia, which had a revolution right at the beginning of its 4T in 2011.
I see the Capitol Putsch as a sort of revolution as an attempt to break the rules of the expected transfer of power. It resembles (at least to me) the the Bolshevik takeover of the Winter Palace in style if not agenda.
Quote:As for the double-rhythm, I remain skeptical of any astronomical influence on generational cycles on Earth, but it's clear that there is some kind of alternating pattern, and I have already described in another post the way in which it can be self-generating.
I disagree with Eric on astrology, but lunar and planetary motions are at the least timing mechanisms. Menstruation is derived from Latin mensis (month). The numbered years of grade-school education (K-12) correspond closely with an orbit of Jupiter around the sun. 29 years (one orbit of Saturn) is a close proxy for the time from birth to the completion of professional education for attorneys, physicians, and architects. One orbit of Uranus (84 years) is close to some measure of either a long human life or the survival of childhood memories of the past (and those childhood memories are often far more powerful than most people realize. That is all more coincidence than cause. The day-night and seasonal cycles are far more powerful, and the Earth is not one of the astrological planets.
Quote:I've also seen on another website a theory of a "second-order cycle" in which each saeculum also has the character of a turning. The author of the page goes on to describe a pattern in the severity of 4Ts - from most severe to least, they are the 4Ts that end the 4th, 2nd, 3rd, and 1st saecula (which puts us in the mildest possible 4T, which certainly seemed to be the case prior to 2020 and may still be the case now).
This time, nukes are seemingly everywhere, and any wise leader is legitimately scared. A sneak attack on many countries is much more reckless than it used to be.
Easy pickings might not be so easy as they seem. Italians (probably stooges of the Duce) had signs naming "Corsica" and "Malta" as territories to be 'redeemed' on behalf of restoring the glory of the Roman Empire. (Never mind that Ethiopia and Somalia had never been part of the Roman Empire). Within roughly a year Ethiopia would be the first country liberated from the Axis yoke, and in roughly four years later some of the most impressive legions of all time would march in triumph through Rome (mostly with forty-eight stars and thirteen stripes), and that within five years Mussolini would be executed with his cadaver displayed in disgrace.
Quote: Fitting that into the double rhythm, the "Unifying 4Ts" are the ones that come at the end of the 2nd and 4th saecula (therefore preceding the "static" 1T/3T saecula), while the "Fracturing 4Ts" precede the "dynamic" 2T/4T saecula.
I'm not sure that any longer cycle applies. There is just too little data. This 4T could culminate in something much less dangerous because COVID-19 suggests a saying that Gene Roddenberry attributed to the Klingons:
"Only fools fight in a burning house".
The Black Death was hardly a warlike time even if people were dying as if in a particularly-nasty war. COVID-19 kills on the scale of a war that political and military figures wage with incompetent generalship. I can predict this: the next Crisis Era will happen as the $#!+ hits the fan when global warming inundates huge tracts of some of the farmland necessary for feeding hundreds of millions of people and when some densely-populated areas get transformed into deserts. Hunger brings out the worst in politics and other aspects of human behavior.
Ask yourself how many Bangladeshi peasants do you want to invite into your country? King Neptune will confiscate land of peasant farmers just as ruthlessly as Stalin did -- but at the least the recent freehold farmers of the USSR could survive as serfs of the Soviet State on collective farms that used to be their property. "King Neptune" won't even be that generous. That is a near certainty if sea levels rise.
Quote:This also fits well with the comparison of the current 4T to the Glorious Revolution, 240 years ago.
The Glorious Revolution is no longer a 'sexy' part of historical study.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.