12-13-2021, 03:42 PM
(12-13-2021, 07:43 AM)RambleBumble Wrote:(12-09-2021, 05:12 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: Countries whose last completed Crisis Era ended with World War II (the UK, France, Belgium, Netherlands, Norway, Denmark, Italy, Japan, the Philippines, the USSR/Russia, Finland, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, and Thailand are on our timeline (V-J Day). Countries whose last Crisis ended with a Communist takeover (Poland, Czechia, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, Albania) or a failed Communist revolution soon after the end of World War II are just behind us in the generational cycle. A communist takeover is one of the biggest possible changes in a social order as it completely undoes the previous economic system and transforms the political realities. The consolidation of the Apartheid system in South Africa constitutes the end of a Crisis. Even the deposition of a King isn't that severe (Italy, Greece, Nepal). World War II entailed huge destruction and genocide unlike anything since Genghiz Khan and Timur Lenk. The consolidation of Communist rule in the PRC in 1950 defines China as about five years behind the USA in the cycle. The WWII Crisis in Germany is over with the formal severing of Germany into two different Republics, one capitalist (the Bundesrepublik) and one Commie (the DDR). Cuba's Crisis Era ends with the Bay of Pigs fiasco (American) or heroic defense (for those who think Fidel Castro wonderful). India and Israel achieve the ends of their Crisis Eras with independence under harsh circumstances.
Oddly I do not see the dissolution of Communist rule in central and Balkan Europe and the former Soviet Union as Crisis Eras. The revolutions are generally non-violent (except in Romania) and did not culminate in mass death. It was wise of non-Communists to let bygones be bygones without the execution of Commies. I do not so see the elimination of Apartheid in South Africa. Food is in my presence, so I have no desire to speak of Rwanda or the former Yugoslavia.
Korea's Crisis was of course the Korean War with a metastable armistice.
Thank you for the comprehensive answers. I agree for the countries that were involved in WW II. But IMO also Germany have the same cycle. Seems the Breakdown of the Soviet Union is not mark a new Cycle. I think it was a almost peacefull transformation. And the BRD was not "changing" in a completly way.
Why do you think Countries whose last Crisis ended with a Communist takeover (Poland, Czechia, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, Albania) are behind us in the generational cylcle? Does it not also started right after the WWII. So it should be very similar to us.
Also i would say differences like 5 years to China are not relevant, and the turnings may sync because of globalization.
And because China wants to become a world power and battles with the USA.
Seventy-five years after Joachim von Ribbentrop, Wilhelm Keitel, Ernst Kaltenbrunner, Alfred Rosenberg, Hans Frank, Wilhelm Frick, Julius Streicher, Fritz Sauckel, Alfred Jodl, Artur Seyss-Inquart went to Hell with ropes around their necks following the suicide of Hermann Goering (who surely went to the same place), the difference between a Crisis ending with the surrender of Japan and a Crisis being resolved with the Berlin Air Lift or the formation of separate German states in 1948 and 1949 is a triviality in that time scale.
The imposition of a Communist regime is itself a Crisis act because it implies the destruction of the old relationships between investors, landlords, executives, and lenders on the one hand and the much-lauded proletariat. A new, and usually harsher form of command replaces the more voluntary exchanges of capitalism or the command-and-control system of feudalism. Communist takeovers usually result in the obliteration of those who did well in the Old Order. Communism destroys or overpowers any possible competition or opposition. There may be a wave of arrests and either executions or very nasty imprisonments of people of the Old Order. The overthrow of a Commie regime is not itself a Crisis; the anti-Communist revolutions were generally non-violent, and except for Nicolae and Elena Ceausescu the former Commie bosses rarely faced execution or brutal incarceration. Those overthrows occurred in a 3T, when libertarian tendencies are more powerful than any urge to violent revcolution.
Thus the last of the post-WWII Communist regimes except North Korea (Korean War), Vietnam (taken over by Commies in two stages about thirty years apart), and the former Yugoslavia (civil war over dissolution much closer to this time) are clearly behind the USA in the cycle. The four years later for the Communist takeover of Mainland China don't mean much after seventy years.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.