02-08-2022, 05:03 PM
So I think the S&H theory has been invalidated. I now employ Peter Turchin's secular cycle for periodization. His cycle also has four periods: growth (1942-73), stagnation (1973-2006), crisis (2006-?) and resolution (not yet started). I date these for the current cycle as 1942-1973, 1973-2006, 2006-?.
Unlike the saeculum, there ius no natural length to these cycles. The periods change when they do. For example, the crisis begins with the captalist crisis, defined as a sudden drop in ratio of per capital GDP to R, (a proxy for capital in the economy), This ratio is usually roughly constant (see fig) and is a measure of the productivity of capital. When it drops it indicates something is wrong with how the economy is functioning (this is described in chapter 2 of my book). It eventually leads to financial crisis through Hyman Minski's financial instability hypothesis as described in chapter 4.
![[Image: Capital-crisis-fig.gif]](https://mikebert.neocities.org/Capital-crisis-fig.gif)
The crisis resolution involves fixing the capitalist crisis. As you can see in the figure, the capitalist crisis began 1907 along with the crisis period. The capitalist crisis ended in 1942, when the red line shoots back up, indicating the crisis was resolved. This ends the resoltuion period and begins the growth period of the next (current) secular cycle.
The key measure that denotes the passage of the secular cycle (and helps in dating) is economic inequality. The beginning of a near fifty-year decline in inequality in 1929 signifies the beginning of the resolution period of the last cycle. The beginning of a long tern rise in inequality indicates the end of the growth period and beginning of the stagnation period. The trend change in inequality in the late 1970's shown in the figure is a manifestation of the 1970's stagflation, which began in 1973 with the oil crisis. Hence, I date the periods in the current secular cycle as indicated in the previous post.
You can see that the secular cycle is operating much like a 100-year saeculum with the 1942-73 growth period corresponding to a 1T, a 1973-2006 stagnation period to a 2T, and a 2006-present crisis period mapping into a 3T, with the resolution period (4T) yet to come.
Anyways the inequality trend shown in the figure is itself the result of cultural evolution of business/economic culture as described in chapter 3. The driver of this evolution is economic policy implemented by political elites. The political cultural evolution responsible for changing economic policy implemented by political actors is described in chapter 5.
In chapter 6, I introduce a new concept: social contagion. This mechanism is responsible for things like fifty-year cycles in war, prices, and social/cultural instability. The periodic "social moments" S&H talk about mostly arise from this mechanism, not the generational mechanism S&H proposed.
Chapter 7 presents some application of these ideas and chapter 8 has a discussion of the current situation and how it might play out.
https://mikebert.neocities.org/America-in-crisis.pdf
Unlike the saeculum, there ius no natural length to these cycles. The periods change when they do. For example, the crisis begins with the captalist crisis, defined as a sudden drop in ratio of per capital GDP to R, (a proxy for capital in the economy), This ratio is usually roughly constant (see fig) and is a measure of the productivity of capital. When it drops it indicates something is wrong with how the economy is functioning (this is described in chapter 2 of my book). It eventually leads to financial crisis through Hyman Minski's financial instability hypothesis as described in chapter 4.
The crisis resolution involves fixing the capitalist crisis. As you can see in the figure, the capitalist crisis began 1907 along with the crisis period. The capitalist crisis ended in 1942, when the red line shoots back up, indicating the crisis was resolved. This ends the resoltuion period and begins the growth period of the next (current) secular cycle.
The key measure that denotes the passage of the secular cycle (and helps in dating) is economic inequality. The beginning of a near fifty-year decline in inequality in 1929 signifies the beginning of the resolution period of the last cycle. The beginning of a long tern rise in inequality indicates the end of the growth period and beginning of the stagnation period. The trend change in inequality in the late 1970's shown in the figure is a manifestation of the 1970's stagflation, which began in 1973 with the oil crisis. Hence, I date the periods in the current secular cycle as indicated in the previous post.
You can see that the secular cycle is operating much like a 100-year saeculum with the 1942-73 growth period corresponding to a 1T, a 1973-2006 stagnation period to a 2T, and a 2006-present crisis period mapping into a 3T, with the resolution period (4T) yet to come.
Anyways the inequality trend shown in the figure is itself the result of cultural evolution of business/economic culture as described in chapter 3. The driver of this evolution is economic policy implemented by political elites. The political cultural evolution responsible for changing economic policy implemented by political actors is described in chapter 5.
In chapter 6, I introduce a new concept: social contagion. This mechanism is responsible for things like fifty-year cycles in war, prices, and social/cultural instability. The periodic "social moments" S&H talk about mostly arise from this mechanism, not the generational mechanism S&H proposed.
Chapter 7 presents some application of these ideas and chapter 8 has a discussion of the current situation and how it might play out.
https://mikebert.neocities.org/America-in-crisis.pdf