2016 Polling Thread

[pbrower2a]

We may be seeing a Trump charge now. What I first thought were anomalous polls may not be so anomalous.

Quote:Monmouth University, Pennsylvania:

http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institut...PA_083016/

Clinton - 48%
Trump - 40%
Johnson - 6%
Stein - 1%

There  are some polls by an entity called Emerson College, but they are screwy enough to be suspect.

WISCONSIN:

https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2016/08/3...in-voters/

RV:
Clinton - 42%
Trump - 37%


Clinton - 37%
Trump - 32%
Johnson - 11%
Stein - 7%

LV:
Clinton - 45%
Trump - 42%


Clinton - 41%
Trump - 38%
Johnson - 10%
Stein - 4%

http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institut...WI_083116/

Clinton - 43%
Trump - 38%
Johnson - 7%
Stein - 3%

Your choice on which you go with. Marquette recently had Clinton up by double digits

Some polls from Emerson College:

New York



North Carolina

[img]<br />https://static.wixstatic.com/media/3bebb2_a808fd9437734397aea0d9df48bcd703~mv2.jpg/v1/fill/w_208,h_208,al_c,q_80,usm_0.66_1.00_0.01/3bebb2_a808fd9437734397aea0d9df48bcd703~mv2.jpg[/img]

Michigan

[img]<br />https://static.wixstatic.com/media/3bebb2_627b152f417a4b50809d1d91f6ab0498~mv2.jpg/v1/fill/w_208,h_208,al_c,q_80,usm_0.66_1.00_0.01/3bebb2_627b152f417a4b50809d1d91f6ab0498~mv2.jpg[/img]

Pennsylvania:



Ohio:
[img]<br />https://static.wixstatic.com/media/3bebb2_23699d62d3eb417f9d5d63c3c90f1a44~mv2.jpg/v1/fill/w_457,h_457,al_c,q_90,usm_0.66_1.00_0.01/3bebb2_23699d62d3eb417f9d5d63c3c90f1a44~mv2.jpg[/img]


Arizona, Breitbart/Gravis:

Trump - 44%
Clinton - 40%
Johnson - 8%
Stein - 1%

Poll was of 1,244 likely Arizona voters conducted on August 27th.

http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/...8-stein-1/

Also from Arizona, but nothing from Emerson College:

http://email.connectstrategic.com/t/j-73630F4BD52B12D8

Clinton - 40%
Trump - 39%
Johnson - 7%
Stein - 1%

Conducted August 25-27. 728 LV. Rated C+ on 538.

Useless because it is a tie.



Binary race, Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump ®  




Leader up with

60% or more -- saturation 80%
55-59% --     saturation 70%
50-54% --     saturation 60%
46-49%, margin 4% or greater saturation 40%
46-49%, margin 3% or less saturation 20%

(the usual color applies for the partisan leader, but yellow blue to green and red to orange below  

40-45%, margin 4% or greater, saturation 40%
43-45%, margin 3% or less, saturation 20%  





Johnson support:

16%+: 80
13-15: 70
10-12: 60
7-9: 50
4-6: 40
2-3: 30
0-1: 20
Poll w/ no Libertarian number: clear








Small states and districts in area or with shapes that allow confusion:

FL D4/4;4
ME D 10/10; 4
NH D15/8,4

Clinton (D)
Trump ®
Johnson (L)

The nature of this election cycle must change dramatically for Donald Trump to have any chance of victory.

It may have.