09-04-2022, 06:30 PM
(This post was last modified: 09-04-2022, 06:34 PM by Eric the Green.)
(09-04-2022, 09:38 AM)David Horn Wrote:(09-03-2022, 01:53 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:(09-03-2022, 06:56 AM)David Horn Wrote: If Biden is reelected, he'll default to caretaker status relatively early in his second term -- better than having an arsonist in charge but too little to create real change. Once again, the monied will escape and this will settle finally into 1980ish neoliberal lite in the 1T. It could be worse. It should be better.
Biden will still be in charge and pushing for the changes that we'll need. There being no-one else, he will be more than a caretaker. He certainly doesn't have a veep who can take over. Is there a potential House speaker who can fill that role? I don't see that person. A big challenge will be to put down the violent uprisings by the militias of the right wing in the mid-2020s after he wins re-election. I think he is ready and willing to meet the challenge, as he says he is.
This is a direct result of the Silent/Boomer leadership of both parties hanging on and not letting go. Younger pols have just waved and sreamed, but they can't get traction. The voting youth have decided it's futile, and just walked away. Running Biden again will just seal the deal. 2028 will be a bloodbath.
Biden will quell what bloodbath there is. He has pledged to, and he will. Biden's poll numbers are creeping up now. It's down to -10% negative, while Trump's are -15%. And he still leads over Trump and DeSantis. Like us, the youth wish there was someone else besides Grandpa, but they are willing to vote for him against what the other side offers. Gavin Newson will be ready to take over and run in 2028, and he has a good horoscope score. You have to run a candidate with a good horoscope score. It indicates someone who can lead and communicate. None of the 2020 Democratic candidates were remotely skilled; none of them could beat Biden, and that's because Biden was better, not because he was hanging on. Pelosi has had no replacement either, and frankly I still don't see one with the leadership skills she has.
I would like it if there were younger candidates who could fill these roles, but they just aren't there. Gen Xers and many Jones Boomers were too cynical, and those with the skill just went into other fields besides politics and government. Gretchen Whitmer and Corey Booker just don't have the stuff. Ron DeSantis might beat them. Even Trump could beat them. Unless Mitch Landrieu runs, we are stuck with Biden, and he can still win. Don't underestimate him. These speeches prove that he can arouse the passion behind him. When he focuses, he does not mumble or stumble more than any other candidate, or even than himself in the past. He has never spoken in public speeches before with this much force, conviction, articulation and dramatic passion. And he connects also because he is a people-friendly person.
Quote:Eric Wrote:We should do better than we will in this 4T. I guess that's true in most 4Ts. The status quo or a reactionary trend can make a comeback in 1Ts, but they also carry forward the momentum of the changes made during 4Ts, to varying degrees. The question is will we do what we need to do to steer the ship of state on a better course, whether everything gets done that should be done or not. Passing the climate action was a good first step, and as he said we are only just beginning. It will take a Democratic congress to do more. Biden is not to blame if we haven't gotten done all we should; the Democrats in the House did what was needed. The voters did not give Biden a real majority in the Senate, so that limited the results. Again it needs to be continually said. No president can do much without a congress, unless you want a dictator...
We may get lucky, but the odds aren't high. The last 4T fixed international affairs at the price of domesitc ones. As important as international issues are again this time, we may have to risk foreign problems to solve the problems at home. We may be the #1 nation, but we're not the only nation. It's time for our allies to carry more of the burden and give us room to fix our internal politics, but will they?
I don't know if the odds are high or not, but the stars are aligning, literally, and after all, Biden was able to get things going. Climate action was passed. If more is to be done between Jan.2023 and Jan.2025, Democrats must keep their slim margin in the House and attain a genuine margin in the Senate. As Biden said, we are only beginning.
I agree the double rhythm (which I first suggested, based on Neptune being twice the length of Uranus in its cycle that corresponds to the modern saeculum), as well as the obvious situations, indicates domestic affairs are the main focus of need this time around. Ours is the Cold Civil War fourth turning, and like last time the problems stem from the division, and this time the division comes from the power of neoliberalism combined with prejudice, concentrated in the Republican Party. They ARE the problem; they ARE the crisis. Come to think of it, the division isn't much different this time from last time. Just a Party switch.
However, there are both foreign and domestic problems in all 4Ts. The Allies need to do more, but we still are the big kahuna with the big military and the big bucks, so our role (for example in helping Ukraine) remains paramount. If Putin were not who he is, then we wouldn't be having to take this action.