05-20-2023, 05:26 PM
Today I saw a site called Catalist (sic) that suggested political trends that doom any third wave of the 3T political culture of the Reagan-Trump era. Combine the evidence from this site with the Skowronek Cycle (that suggests that Reagan started a new era with bold initiative -- however flawed -- and that Trump largely brings about the logical conclusion of failure as those initiatives have have become threadbare), and the Reagan-Trump model is doomed.
It is well worth the read.
Comment:
In a highly-polarized society in culture, politics, and moral visions, either extreme and callous ruthlessness forces events (think of Francisco Franco in Spain; Trump is similarly extreme and callous in his ruthlessness, if less effective) or demographics shape a free political process. Yes, Spain in the 1930's has been a fitting model for describing the political and cultural polarization in America in recent times, with parts of Spain being as forward-thinking and culturally-daring as New England at the time and parts of Spain being essentially pre-modern in attitudes by standards of the 1930's. Franco's fascists rejected everything modern except the tools of warfare, propaganda, and terror, and those are enough to maintain power indefinitely.
Catalist suggests that demographic trends with free elections will doom the Reagan-Trump agenda, ensuring that there will be no rebound. If a new conservatism should arise, then that new conservatism will owe far more to Obama than to either Reagan or Trump. Rule of law, precedent, protocol, sobriety, sexual moderation, and tradition are all old conservative virtues. If Obama is more multicultural in his attitudes, his sort of multiculturalism implies that the traditions of America's Model Minorities will prevail in their turf more than they will meld. As we go into a 1T, we will see less acceptance of any avant-garde that offers neither a quick payoff nor obvious harm.
The attempted revolution of January 6, 2021 may have been the peak of danger to the political order following the mass-death that COVID-19 caused. COVID-19 killed in numbers characteristic if a war and the near-zero inflation that Reagan succeeded in establishing (if at the cost of super-cheap labor. Millions of people whose working lives have largely been during the Reagan-Trump era who were never able to put together any semblance of a retirement fund because they were underpaid through most of the era will experience harsh old age due to poverty.
It is well worth the read.
Comment:
In a highly-polarized society in culture, politics, and moral visions, either extreme and callous ruthlessness forces events (think of Francisco Franco in Spain; Trump is similarly extreme and callous in his ruthlessness, if less effective) or demographics shape a free political process. Yes, Spain in the 1930's has been a fitting model for describing the political and cultural polarization in America in recent times, with parts of Spain being as forward-thinking and culturally-daring as New England at the time and parts of Spain being essentially pre-modern in attitudes by standards of the 1930's. Franco's fascists rejected everything modern except the tools of warfare, propaganda, and terror, and those are enough to maintain power indefinitely.
Catalist suggests that demographic trends with free elections will doom the Reagan-Trump agenda, ensuring that there will be no rebound. If a new conservatism should arise, then that new conservatism will owe far more to Obama than to either Reagan or Trump. Rule of law, precedent, protocol, sobriety, sexual moderation, and tradition are all old conservative virtues. If Obama is more multicultural in his attitudes, his sort of multiculturalism implies that the traditions of America's Model Minorities will prevail in their turf more than they will meld. As we go into a 1T, we will see less acceptance of any avant-garde that offers neither a quick payoff nor obvious harm.
The attempted revolution of January 6, 2021 may have been the peak of danger to the political order following the mass-death that COVID-19 caused. COVID-19 killed in numbers characteristic if a war and the near-zero inflation that Reagan succeeded in establishing (if at the cost of super-cheap labor. Millions of people whose working lives have largely been during the Reagan-Trump era who were never able to put together any semblance of a retirement fund because they were underpaid through most of the era will experience harsh old age due to poverty.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.
