09-08-2016, 12:12 PM
It seems to me Strauss & Howe do not delineate the fourth turnings consistently. The key feature in each is generally a major war, but sometimes they they extend the turning ahead of the war, sometimes behind, sometimes only including the war.
Personally I think the most consistent delineation of the "mood" of civilization would be at the end of the war. The end of the civil war ended the crisis and began reconstruction; Victory in Japan day ended the crisis and again introduced a period of rebuilding. Likewise construction of the new nation of the United States really began in earnest after the Revolutionary War was won, starting with development of the Constitution.
In this view, the fourth turning ought properly be seen as the period leading up to and including the crisis war, when signs of problems become clear but have not yet been resolved. Throughout the 1930s, it was clear that war was coming; similarly there were clear stresses before the Civil War and the Revolutionary War.
If the current fourth turning started with 9/11, we ought to expect the crisis to come to a head by 2020. If it started with the crash, the crisis might be later.
Personally I think the most consistent delineation of the "mood" of civilization would be at the end of the war. The end of the civil war ended the crisis and began reconstruction; Victory in Japan day ended the crisis and again introduced a period of rebuilding. Likewise construction of the new nation of the United States really began in earnest after the Revolutionary War was won, starting with development of the Constitution.
In this view, the fourth turning ought properly be seen as the period leading up to and including the crisis war, when signs of problems become clear but have not yet been resolved. Throughout the 1930s, it was clear that war was coming; similarly there were clear stresses before the Civil War and the Revolutionary War.
If the current fourth turning started with 9/11, we ought to expect the crisis to come to a head by 2020. If it started with the crash, the crisis might be later.
