(09-08-2016, 12:12 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: It seems to me Strauss & Howe do not delineate the fourth turnings consistently. The key feature in each is generally a major war, but sometimes they they extend the turning ahead of the war, sometimes behind, sometimes only including the war.
Personally I think the most consistent delineation of the "mood" of civilization would be at the end of the war. The end of the civil war ended the crisis and began reconstruction; Victory in Japan day ended the crisis and again introduced a period of rebuilding. Likewise construction of the new nation of the United States really began in earnest after the Revolutionary War was won, starting with development of the Constitution.
In this view, the fourth turning ought properly be seen as the period leading up to and including the crisis war, when signs of problems become clear but have not yet been resolved. Throughout the 1930s, it was clear that war was coming; similarly there were clear stresses before the Civil War and the Revolutionary War.
If the current fourth turning started with 9/11, we ought to expect the crisis to come to a head by 2020. If it started with the crash, the crisis might be later.
Did you read my post? Starting the Civil War 4T much before 1861 means that the next 4T would have to begin in 1919, if the S&H concept of "generations create history and history creates generations" is valid then an 1850 or 1854 start for the Civil War 4T is inconsistent with a 1929 start for the next 4T. If one insists otherwise one is proposing a fundamentally different cycle than the one S&H proposed. You cannot escape this. It is the whole point of a theory--to exclude some results from others so as to provide explanation for why this result and not that. If every possible outcome is permitted, then it is not theory.
So yes one can change things from what S&H have. But you must then work through the consequences of the change using their theory. You may find the implications of your proposed change makes a bigger problem "downstream".
