09-02-2016, 07:01 AM
(09-01-2016, 09:17 AM)playwrite Wrote:(08-31-2016, 12:40 PM)Mikebert Wrote: Most of the other ideas I have drawn from folks here have come from people on the other side.
That's kinda scary.
It's counter intuitive, I agree. Here's an example. Marc Lamb was probably the biggest right winger we ever had at this site. Nevertheless I gained keen insights from him. Marc insisted on politics as key to the cycle, not economics as I believed at the time. Although he liked a lot of my stuff on this he thought I was barking up the wrong tree. For example, for him Reagan was cycle-equivalent to Teddy Roosevelt, wheras for me he was Warren Harding. He was using a "40 year cycle" as a ruler, so Clinton was like Wilson and Bush was like Harding-Coolidge and the 4T was still in the future (this was ca. 2002). I was using a K-cycle ruler based on the stock market as a ruler, so I had predicted the start of the 4T to be "soon" in August 2000 and believed it had come true 13 months later. This made Bush cycle-equivalent to Hoover.
By 2004-5 I had abandoned economics and was now using a political cycle basis for my paradigm model which forecasted the start of the 4T in 2006 plus or minus a few years. Marc was right and I was wrong. So I now use his ideas and his 40-year cycle concept as one of the themes I play with in my thinking.