It looks like Trump is setting the mood for the 1T.

[Galen]

(11-18-2016, 08:41 PM)Kinser79 Wrote:

(11-18-2016, 12:42 PM)Mikebert Wrote: I don't understand this thread title.  Most assume the 4T started in 2008, so we are 8 years in.  The nominal length for turnings is 22 years and the last one lasted 24, so lets use 22.  This forecasts the start of the 1T around 2030.  Isn't a little early to be talking about the 1T?

Many that use 2008 as the start of the 4T clearly ignore the fact that Katrina clearly demonstrated that the status quo wasn't working, in fact couldn't work.  As such I've always placed the start at 2005-2006 meaning the turning is now 10 years old, and should be headed towards its climax now.  After 8 years in January 2025 I would imagine that Pence or perhaps a Trumpist GOP will be taking over and that will be the face of the 1T.

Murray Rothbard once pointed out that the Progressive Era, with its idea of a technocratic elite, had not ended in the eighties and I am inclined to agree with this assessment.   The last fourth turning spelled the end of classical liberalism and so it seems likely that this one spell the final end of the Progressive Era.  Judging from current trends it seems likely that the upcoming first turning will be defined by nationalism but on a much smaller scale than was known in the twentieth century.  If so then the nation-state as we know it is on the decline on an even longer time scale.  Probably about two centuries give or take a half-century.

At this point it is hard to define Trumpism or even if there will be such a thing.  Time will tell.  It always does in the end.