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It looks like Trump is setting the mood for the 1T.
#41
"Suppression", then.
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#42
I guess the big variable is what form that suppression takes; on one hand there might be social discomfort as some people are more likely to voice their biases; on the other hand there's organized action - potentially government sanctioned - strategically intended to disadvantage/detain/incarcerate specific groups.

Regardless, equality of opportunity is something that should be strived for in all turnings. There may be less appetite for it in the 1T, but that's all the more reason it needs supporting.
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#43
(11-17-2016, 12:58 PM)X_4AD_84 Wrote:
(11-17-2016, 11:55 AM)Warren Dew Wrote: Diversity and acceptance of diversity sound nice, but unfortunately the whole point of a first turning is convergence of culture and elimination of diversity.

If that were true, places like North Beach and the North End would have been made milquetoast during the 1950s. Harlem would have been turned into "black in appearance only." Chinatowns nation wide would have been peopled by "bananas."

Oh wait. Didn't happen that way.

Sooooo  .... maybe .... "elimination" is an exaggeration, no?

Warren has it pretty well correct on this, as I see it, but toward the end of the 1T, the 2T impulses begin to show themselves, at least on the fringes of society as in North Beach SF.

Just as much of the 2T revival of culture gets more and more relegated to the fringes as the 3T goes on.
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive;
Eric M
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#44
(11-17-2016, 01:42 PM)tg63 Wrote: I guess the big variable is what form that suppression takes; on one hand there might be social discomfort as some people are more likely to voice their biases; on the other hand there's organized action - potentially government sanctioned - strategically intended to disadvantage/detain/incarcerate specific groups.

Regardless, equality of opportunity is something that should be strived for in all turnings.  There may be less appetite for it in the 1T, but that's all the more reason it needs supporting.

The way to do that is to abandon alternatives like the Democrats' equality of result or like the alt right's implicit or explicit racial superiority, and focus on getting race blind equality of opportunity into the dominant first turning culture.  I think there's still time in the fourth turning
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#45
If this is the wave of the 1T, then all that we can do is to suffer for economic elites who have us completely at their mercy. Welcome an America as politically and economically nasty as the old Soviet Union and its satellites in which "free enterprise" simply that "enterprise is free to do horrible things to people".

If such is so, then I hate life and would welcome death, as there will be nothing to live for.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#46
When I was a child I wished to go to America. Now I know life is far better in NZ for quality of life (the quality that I enjoy personally). The more I learn about America the more I wonder why I thought it was an ideal place to go live in.
1984 Apollonian Civic
ISFP - The Artist.






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#47
(11-17-2016, 04:21 PM)taramarie Wrote: When I was a child I wished to go to America. Now I know life is far better in NZ for quality of life (the quality that I enjoy personally). The more I learn about America the more I wonder why I thought it was an ideal place to go live in.

Half the benefits of moving to a more cosmopolitan place you can now get over the internet instead.
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#48
(11-17-2016, 04:21 PM)taramarie Wrote: When I was a child I wished to go to America. Now I know life is far better in NZ for quality of life (the quality that I enjoy personally). The more I learn about America the more I wonder why I thought it was an ideal place to go live in.

hey, I still love visiting America.
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#49
I don't understand this thread title. Most assume the 4T started in 2008, so we are 8 years in. The nominal length for turnings is 22 years and the last one lasted 24, so lets use 22. This forecasts the start of the 1T around 2030. Isn't a little early to be talking about the 1T?
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#50
(11-18-2016, 12:28 PM)tg63 Wrote:
(11-17-2016, 04:21 PM)taramarie Wrote: When I was a child I wished to go to America. Now I know life is far better in NZ for quality of life (the quality that I enjoy personally). The more I learn about America the more I wonder why I thought it was an ideal place to go live in.

hey, I still love visiting America.

That is you. Am I you? No.
1984 Apollonian Civic
ISFP - The Artist.






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#51
(11-18-2016, 12:42 PM)Mikebert Wrote: I don't understand this thread title.  Most assume the 4T started in 2008, so we are 8 years in.  The nominal length for turnings is 22 years and the last one lasted 24, so lets use 22.  This forecasts the start of the 1T around 2030.  Isn't a little early to be talking about the 1T?

The mood for the first turning is set in the preceding fourth turning.  By the time the first turning rolls around, it's too late for it to change.  Thus, discussion now is apropos.
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#52
The problem is Warren that no-one is sure how the 4T is going to turn out until it is about over. The victory has not been won; the defeat has not been suffered. In the New Deal, some direction was set; but that was an anomaly. Although the authors said the civil war was the anomaly, it now appears that the Depression era was. It created more agreement than usually occurs during 4th turnings. But then WWII happened, and the outcome of that was in doubt for a while. So, we don't know how the 1T will turn out, or what the consensus will be, until it's almost time for it to arrive. I agree with mikebert in this case.

Right now, the mood appeared to be getting set by Obama and Clinton. Now it appears to be getting set by Trump. It could happen, in which case we will be enjoying the sunny society of a banana republic. But the battle may have just begun. A lot of us are set to resist the orange menace and all he stands for, including your libertarian economics.

It usually doesn't fare too well in 4Ts and 1Ts. So if it does this time, it's an onimous sign of a precipitous national decline.

In 4Ts and 1Ts, a national consensus of people interested in the national interest and purpose is supposed to gather strength and prevail. In the 4T, it's a battle over what that consensus will look like. In the 1T it is taken for granted.
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive;
Eric M
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#53
(11-18-2016, 01:25 PM)X_4AD_84 Wrote:
(11-18-2016, 12:42 PM)Mikebert Wrote: I don't understand this thread title.  Most assume the 4T started in 2008, so we are 8 years in.  The nominal length for turnings is 22 years and the last one lasted 24, so lets use 22.  This forecasts the start of the 1T around 2030.  Isn't a little early to be talking about the 1T?

It's way early.

Part of this meme is gloating by the Trumpistas. They think foolishly that DT is equivalent to FDR (a supposedly Right Wing version) and that the Regeneracy is upon us. Very foolish. It's like unbuckling and walking around the cabin after hitting some light chop only to get head slammed into the cabin ceiling when the real turbulence hits.

The Dems under Obama done goofed and failed to read the growing anti-globalization and anti-technocratic mood of the country, so now the electorate are giving the GOP a shot. Hopefully the Dems can get their shit together and craft a message that matches that mood rather than fighting a losing battle in defense of neoliberalism.
#MakeTheDemocratsGreatAgain
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#54
(11-18-2016, 12:42 PM)Mikebert Wrote: I don't understand this thread title. Most assume the 4T started in 2008, so we are 8 years in. The nominal length for turnings is 22 years and the last one lasted 24, so lets use 22. This forecasts the start of the 1T around 2030. Isn't a little early to be talking about the 1T?

The last 4T lasted 16 years and so could this one. This one might end early because Trump is a loose cannon willing to use nukes
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#55
(11-18-2016, 12:42 PM)Mikebert Wrote: I don't understand this thread title. Most assume the 4T started in 2008, so we are 8 years in. The nominal length for turnings is 22 years and the last one lasted 24, so lets use 22. This forecasts the start of the 1T around 2030. Isn't a little early to be talking about the 1T?

Many that use 2008 as the start of the 4T clearly ignore the fact that Katrina clearly demonstrated that the status quo wasn't working, in fact couldn't work. As such I've always placed the start at 2005-2006 meaning the turning is now 10 years old, and should be headed towards its climax now. After 8 years in January 2025 I would imagine that Pence or perhaps a Trumpist GOP will be taking over and that will be the face of the 1T.

Of course I view the Trump revolution as analogous to the Glorious Revolution. The liberals on this board have already said he's likely James II but I highly doubt that.
It really is all mathematics.

Turn on to Daddy, Tune in to Nationalism, Drop out of UN/NATO/WTO/TPP/NAFTA/CAFTA Globalism.
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#56
(11-18-2016, 08:41 PM)Kinser79 Wrote:
(11-18-2016, 12:42 PM)Mikebert Wrote: I don't understand this thread title.  Most assume the 4T started in 2008, so we are 8 years in.  The nominal length for turnings is 22 years and the last one lasted 24, so lets use 22.  This forecasts the start of the 1T around 2030.  Isn't a little early to be talking about the 1T?

Many that use 2008 as the start of the 4T clearly ignore the fact that Katrina clearly demonstrated that the status quo wasn't working, in fact couldn't work.  As such I've always placed the start at 2005-2006 meaning the turning is now 10 years old, and should be headed towards its climax now.  After 8 years in January 2025 I would imagine that Pence or perhaps a Trumpist GOP will be taking over and that will be the face of the 1T.

Murray Rothbard once pointed out that the Progressive Era, with its idea of a technocratic elite, had not ended in the eighties and I am inclined to agree with this assessment.   The last fourth turning spelled the end of classical liberalism and so it seems likely that this one spell the final end of the Progressive Era.  Judging from current trends it seems likely that the upcoming first turning will be defined by nationalism but on a much smaller scale than was known in the twentieth century.  If so then the nation-state as we know it is on the decline on an even longer time scale.  Probably about two centuries give or take a half-century.

At this point it is hard to define Trumpism or even if there will be such a thing.  Time will tell.  It always does in the end.
Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard. -- H.L. Mencken

If one rejects laissez faire on account of man's fallibility and moral weakness, one must for the same reason also reject every kind of government action.   -- Ludwig von Mises
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#57
(11-18-2016, 08:33 PM)disasterzone Wrote:
(11-18-2016, 12:42 PM)Mikebert Wrote: I don't understand this thread title. Most assume the 4T started in 2008, so we are 8 years in. The nominal length for turnings is 22 years and the last one lasted 24, so lets use 22. This forecasts the start of the 1T around 2030. Isn't a little early to be talking about the 1T?

The last 4T lasted 16 years and so could this one. This one might end early because Trump is a loose cannon willing to use nukes

According to the timeclock I use, the last 4T started a bit late, and ended early because Hitler shortened the war with his lousy strategy. However, given that contingency that you point out, it could end more quickly; in which case the "1T" will be one in which the living may very well envy the dead.
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive;
Eric M
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#58
(11-18-2016, 08:23 PM)Odin Wrote:
(11-18-2016, 01:25 PM)X_4AD_84 Wrote:
(11-18-2016, 12:42 PM)Mikebert Wrote: I don't understand this thread title.  Most assume the 4T started in 2008, so we are 8 years in.  The nominal length for turnings is 22 years and the last one lasted 24, so lets use 22.  This forecasts the start of the 1T around 2030.  Isn't a little early to be talking about the 1T?

It's way early.

Part of this meme is gloating by the Trumpistas. They think foolishly that DT is equivalent to FDR (a supposedly Right Wing version) and that the Regeneracy is upon us. Very foolish. It's like unbuckling and walking around the cabin after hitting some light chop only to get head slammed into the cabin ceiling when the real turbulence hits.

The Dems under Obama done goofed and failed to read the growing anti-globalization and anti-technocratic mood of the country, so now the electorate are giving the GOP a shot. Hopefully the Dems can get their shit together and craft a message that matches that mood rather than fighting a losing battle in defense of neoliberalism.

Calling the Democrats' campaign a defense of neo-liberalism is certainly a great exaggeration. Clinton called out Trump for his trickle-down schemes very clearly. But it's true the anti-free trade message by Trump resonated more powerfully and that needs to change. I'm not sure Trump's voters even realize the extent to which computer automation has cost them their jobs, and it's not clear that anyone can do anything about it.
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive;
Eric M
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#59
(11-19-2016, 05:47 AM)Eric the Green Wrote:
(11-18-2016, 08:23 PM)Odin Wrote:
(11-18-2016, 01:25 PM)X_4AD_84 Wrote:
(11-18-2016, 12:42 PM)Mikebert Wrote: I don't understand this thread title.  Most assume the 4T started in 2008, so we are 8 years in.  The nominal length for turnings is 22 years and the last one lasted 24, so lets use 22.  This forecasts the start of the 1T around 2030.  Isn't a little early to be talking about the 1T?

It's way early.

Part of this meme is gloating by the Trumpistas. They think foolishly that DT is equivalent to FDR (a supposedly Right Wing version) and that the Regeneracy is upon us. Very foolish. It's like unbuckling and walking around the cabin after hitting some light chop only to get head slammed into the cabin ceiling when the real turbulence hits.

The Dems under Obama done goofed and failed to read the growing anti-globalization and anti-technocratic mood of the country, so now the electorate are giving the GOP a shot. Hopefully the Dems can get their shit together and craft a message that matches that mood rather than fighting a losing battle in defense of neoliberalism.

Calling the Democrats' campaign a defense of neo-liberalism is certainly a great exaggeration. Clinton called out Trump for his trickle-down schemes very clearly. But it's true the anti-free trade message by Trump resonated more powerfully and that needs to change. I'm not sure Trump's voters even realize the extent to which computer automation has cost them their jobs, and it's not clear that anyone can do anything about it.

You failed to understand my post. In a democracy you are supposed to give the people what they want, but the establishment technocrats in the party (The folks moaning and groaning about "but why don't they understand that free trade is GOOD for them???" or "But we need the TPP for diplomatic reasons!") have come to see the views of ordinary people as a "problem" rather than the whole point of democracy.

I call those technocrats neoliberal because that is what they are, ideologically. They may be on the left-wing end of neoliberalism (neo-Keynesianism) but they are still part of the neoliberal "Washington Consensus".
#MakeTheDemocratsGreatAgain
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#60
(11-18-2016, 08:41 PM)Kinser79 Wrote:
(11-18-2016, 12:42 PM)Mikebert Wrote: I don't understand this thread title.  Most assume the 4T started in 2008, so we are 8 years in.  The nominal length for turnings is 22 years and the last one lasted 24, so lets use 22.  This forecasts the start of the 1T around 2030.  Isn't a little early to be talking about the 1T?

Many that use 2008 as the start of the 4T clearly ignore the fact that Katrina clearly demonstrated that the status quo wasn't working, in fact couldn't work.  As such I've always placed the start at 2005-2006 meaning the turning is now 10 years old, and should be headed towards its climax now.  After 8 years in January 2025 I would imagine that Pence or perhaps a Trumpist GOP will be taking over and that will be the face of the 1T.

Of course I view the Trump revolution as analogous to the Glorious Revolution.  The liberals on this board have already said he's likely James II but I highly doubt that.

More like George III at best, Milosevic at worst.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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