Breaking the idea that saeculums are ~85 years

[Eric the Green]

(06-25-2019, 07:56 AM)Ghost Wrote:

(06-25-2019, 12:56 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: I don't agree with a 72-year saeculum, and certainly not with any notion that Y2K or 9-11 started a 4T or that millennials ended in 1996-99. But, I've said all that before. And the common demographic boomer dates like what you cite are not boomer generation dates.

Lifespans are increasing, not decreasing, so saecula may be increasing in length and slowing down. 72 today probably applies to poorer countries, not the USA; still less to Western Europe.

72 years being one's average lifespan applies worldwide.

https://www.who.int/gho/mortality_burden...trends/en/

Yes but if anything, if there's a worldwide common saeculum, it follows the USA and Europe, not the other way around. Otherwise, if there's not a worldwide saeculum today, then the 72-year saeculum or some other length might apply in other countries, not the USA. 

Likely, however, less-developed countries have a slower saeculum than 84 years. Saecula go faster when there is greater change in society. In renaissance, medieval and ancient times, saecula lasted over 100 years, even though lifespans were only about 40 or 50 years long. The name saeculum is based on the Roman cycle length of 100 years, as noticed, observed and named by people in those times.

The civil war saeculum was apparently faster, from about 1794 to 1865, unless it is given as starting in the 1780s, as has been suggested. Sometimes the following Great Power saeculum, ostensively 1865 to 1945, is shortened by extending the civil war saeculum to 1868 or later. But in any case, both saecula were a few years shorter than the 84-year standard given in the T4T book. And they were times of the most rapid change.

But in our times, since Reagan and his successors have slowed down change in our society with neo-liberalism, our saeculum has reverted to the normal length of 84 years, and extends from 1946 to 2029. This is mainly due to the longer 3T in the Reagan-Bush-Clinton era from 1984 to 2008. The presence of four archetypes in our current saeculum may also be slowing it down or making it less severe, as brower noted.

Probably, the 84-year lifespan counts more than the 72-year supposed worldwide average, because elites that shape society live longer than most of the common people, and because the statistic of average lifespans is shortened by the higher child mortality rate. Those who make it to adulthood today are more likely to live longer than 72 years in developed countries. And if there's a worldwide saeculum, it is set by the affairs in developed countries, who dominate world affairs and who caused the world wars; otherwise the less-developed countries are on their own timetables with different dates.