Breaking the idea that saeculums are ~85 years

[Eric the Green]

(07-01-2019, 04:42 AM)Bill the Piper Wrote:

(07-01-2019, 02:22 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: S&H cut off the Awakening in Generations in 1980, but changed it to 1984 in T4T, which makes much more sense. The first 80s years were in a rather wasted holding pattern; the Awakening had lost much of its steam, but still continued (the anti-nuc movement, for example). Only when the so-called boom began in 1983 and Reagan pronounced it "morning in America" and foolish Americans believed him, did the neo-liberal 3T begin.

Still, didn't the fact that Americans wanted Reagan, and Brits wanted Thatcher, show the 2T is over?

No, because the 1980 recession continued and got worse, and Reagan was unpopular. Which party is in power in the white house does not necessarily define a turning. A turning is a national social and cultural mood, not a political party in office. Nixon's election in 1968 didn't end the 2T either. In any case, Reagan and Thatcher were powered into office by means of a movement that started in 1964, the first year of the 2T. Did you watch the video?

Quote:

Quote:The 2008 recession was correctly identified by Mr. Howe as the start of the 4T. The Iraq War was just a 3T mess from the start.

My point was that already during the Iraqi civil war it was "decided" that Iraqi Freedom was a failure. The anti-wars won, and neoconservatism was discredited. Bush's troop surge was never popular. The change promised by Obama for many voters meant troops going home.

The people knew the Iraqi war was a failure all along. The nation was divided in the 2004 election. But the war continued after 2006 and the congress failed to stop it. In any case, the war continued, and the surge, and then slowly winding down the war, which was remote from the people, was not the beginning of a crisis. The people did not feel it, and the end (?) of a policy that had been business as usual for decades (the neo-cons) was not a big deal.

But a nation going over a financial cliff with seemingly no end in sight was. It affected everybody. Without action, the nation was doomed. It was not just the failure of neo-liberalism, which anyway did not fail, but was revived less than two years later and put right back into power for at least the next decade (and given who the Democrats might put up in 2020, might even continue in power). It was the potential collapse of the entire economy worldwide. It's reverberations continued in the Arab Spring/Occupy movement and in the worldwide refugee crisis and the right-wing reaction that resulted from it.