2020 Predictions

[David Horn]

(03-10-2020, 06:51 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(03-10-2020, 04:34 PM)David Horn Wrote: A more analytical approach is one by Rachel Bitecofer who argues that elections are now hardwired, because there are no swing voters anymore.  She, and her research team, used this model to predict the 2016 election and nailed the House and Senate races in 2018.  Her prediction: if the Progressive vote comes to the polls, Trump will lose dramatically and the Senate may flip to the Ds.

I am more seat of the pants.   I called Trump as having flipped the see saw years ago, and don't see the revelation of the deep state during the impeachment or the Coronavirus  policy changing that.  Thus, I agree with Rachel on the basics.

However, I see the middle of the roaders trying to keep either group of extremists from implementing the worst of their respective policies as being key swing voters.  All during the unraveling and crisis it is they who have kept things going back and forth.  The extremists are very unlikely to change their closed minds.  On that, I disagree with Rachel.

IMNSHO, the middle-of-the-road set are really nonpolitical.  Think about it: how can anyone with an interest in politics not form a solid opinion of some kind -- especially today?  Folks in that group may have strong alliances, but they are religious, social, cultural or tribal in some way.  They relate on a level that can be translated to politics (e.g. think of the Trumpians filling his rallies), but their hold on politics is, well, not political.  Politics requires some thought, and that only appeals to those who have an interest.

To be honest, I'm afraid that the fervor in the Trump camp may be very long lasting, because it's more primal than the intellectual focus of other political types.  Trump may run the party, even though he's out of office.  That has some serious implications, being more the mindset of autocratic regimes.