06-07-2020, 11:46 PM
(03-19-2020, 02:24 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: William Weld dropping out of the Republican race for President (I considered him serious because he had been a State governor), the second key goes back to Trump or requires qualifications. I am tempted to believe that his performance in the 2020 primary in New Hampshire indicates an unusually-heavy level of dissent with the incumbent President within his Party -- much more than was the case with Clinton in 1996, Dubya in 2004, or Obama in 2012. I suspect that President Trump will face a third-party or independent nominee from a faction within his Party. Conservative dissent against Trump for the despotic style of decision-making of this President, the personality cult, the contempt for old decencies and legal norms, the adoption of Big Government as a means of intensifying power of the Leader, and the erratic foreign policy might not lead to the Democratic Party, but it can certainly go to a third-party nominee.
Any third-party or independent nominee who can draw 4% of the conservative vote away from Trump will destroy his chances of re-election. That is one key, and this (third party alternative) key can easily become relevant. It has not appeared yet.
This isn't possible.
It's already too late to get onto the ballot in many states, and the process of getting onto the ballot takes too long in the others where the deadline hasn't yet been reached. Some theoretical third party candidate would have to be a write in candidate. Nine of the states do not even allow write in candidates for president, and those that do mostly have filing deadlines which will be running out or have run out.
The only way the election is not Trump against Biden is if one of them is incapacitated or dies, in which case their party is allowed to choose a new candidate.