(11-03-2020, 09:32 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: The Sabato prediction does jive with JDG's, so it looks like Mr. Glick has looked beyond bias this time and agrees with brower. My salute as well.
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Although I appreciate being considered a good sport, my predictions are not in line with 538, Sabato, or Cook. My original prediction from MAR 2016 (most of it produced in JAN 2018) gives Trump 48.63% of the vote and about 293 EVs. The "48.00%" and "45.93%" scenarios are for informational purposes. I suspect that that Trump's share of the nationwide popular vote is more than 45.93% (538 gives him 45.4%) but less than 49% (I'm pretty sure Trump will get better than Carter's 41% and 97 EVs al la PBrower2a). It all depends on how accurate the polls are. Silver rightly points out that the polls in 2016 were off by less than 2%. I point out that 1% made a pretty big difference. It's a little like doing brain surgery and being off by just an inch. Oops. Have the pollsters learned their lesson, or made them worse? We shall have a better idea in about 10 or 11 hours. I'll be going over to friends to watch. There will literally be popcorn.
BTW, Silver puts the miscellaneous vote at only 1.2% instead of my predicted 1.6%. If accurate, that would knock Trump's chances of winning a state or district by a plurality somewhat. I don't have time to do the math.
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This next isn't original analysis on my part, but my prediction for the Senate is 50 R's, 48 D's, 2 I's. My reasoning: If you check 538 from 2018:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/senate/?ex_cid=midterms-header
... and 2016:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/senate/?ex_cid=2016-forecast
and 2014 (you'll have to take my word for it), R's with over 50% on election day don't seem to lose, but there are usually 2 or 3 R's with less than 50% who do win. Has 538 improved their methodology? I'd bet only so far. Thus, 50Rs.
And BTW, what's with "this time"? My analysis is always based on facts. Would you like to provide any contrary examples? I have a long track record of unbiased analysis. I used to get paid it. My suspicion is that you just don't appreciate it.
