Posted in another forum. One poll has Donald Trump with an approval rating just below 35%.
Analogues for an incumbent President with such a low approval rating. 1932:
![[Image: pe1932.png]](http://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/pe1932.png)
FDR 57.41%, Hoover 41.65% 472-59 in the electoral vote
1980:
![[Image: pe1980.png]](http://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/pe1980.png)
1980: Reagan 50.75%, Carter 41.01%, Anderson 6.61% 489-49 in the electoral vote.
Add about 6.5% to the approval rating of an incumbent Senator, Governor, or President, and you get a good estimate of how he will do in the upcoming election. It worked well with Reagan, Dubya, and Obama; it will likely work well (if not for) Trump.
Hoover and Carter had something that Trump lacks -- a moral compass. I'm not going to guess what states would comprise 55 or so electoral votes for a Republican President seeking re-election and failing as badly as Hoover or Carter. Trump would lose[size=38pt] TEXAS![/size]
I have been slow to put those results in this thread as portents of what awaits the President in 2020, This is the lowest nationwide approval rating that I have seen for this President, and I am too careful to predict yet that such a low approval rating will stick. I'm suggesting what happens if the President is so unpopular at the start of the 2020 campaign.
So what do the Democrats need to do to win such a blowout against a President with such low approval ratings? The 'new Obama' would do it.
(Relevant to this site, but not where I posted this)
We have yet to get any idea of what a late-wave Idealist would be like as a Presidential nominee unless we are old enough to remember FDR as President first-hand, which in 2020 means that one would likely be 80+. On the other side, Generation X has already shown what a "Mature Reactive" would be like without one having to remember Eisenhower as President first-hand without being an infant (by then close to 70). For many Americans, Barack Obama is the best President that they have ever known. A President like Truman, Eisenhower, or Obama (and Obama has acted throughout his Presidency as if in his 60s even if he was 47 when inaugurated) might not be the ideal President, but it's easy to imagine far worse, like an immature Reactive who uses his power largely to settle scores or an elderly Idealist who never grew up.
Quote:Quote:IBD/TIPP (3/24 - 3/30)
Approval: 34%
Disapproval: 56%
Yikes?
Wowza. So now at least more than one pollster has already hit the low 30s.
Analogues for an incumbent President with such a low approval rating. 1932:
FDR 57.41%, Hoover 41.65% 472-59 in the electoral vote
1980:
1980: Reagan 50.75%, Carter 41.01%, Anderson 6.61% 489-49 in the electoral vote.
Add about 6.5% to the approval rating of an incumbent Senator, Governor, or President, and you get a good estimate of how he will do in the upcoming election. It worked well with Reagan, Dubya, and Obama; it will likely work well (if not for) Trump.
Hoover and Carter had something that Trump lacks -- a moral compass. I'm not going to guess what states would comprise 55 or so electoral votes for a Republican President seeking re-election and failing as badly as Hoover or Carter. Trump would lose[size=38pt] TEXAS![/size]
I have been slow to put those results in this thread as portents of what awaits the President in 2020, This is the lowest nationwide approval rating that I have seen for this President, and I am too careful to predict yet that such a low approval rating will stick. I'm suggesting what happens if the President is so unpopular at the start of the 2020 campaign.
So what do the Democrats need to do to win such a blowout against a President with such low approval ratings? The 'new Obama' would do it.
(Relevant to this site, but not where I posted this)
We have yet to get any idea of what a late-wave Idealist would be like as a Presidential nominee unless we are old enough to remember FDR as President first-hand, which in 2020 means that one would likely be 80+. On the other side, Generation X has already shown what a "Mature Reactive" would be like without one having to remember Eisenhower as President first-hand without being an infant (by then close to 70). For many Americans, Barack Obama is the best President that they have ever known. A President like Truman, Eisenhower, or Obama (and Obama has acted throughout his Presidency as if in his 60s even if he was 47 when inaugurated) might not be the ideal President, but it's easy to imagine far worse, like an immature Reactive who uses his power largely to settle scores or an elderly Idealist who never grew up.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.