Donald Trump: polls of approval and favorability

[Bob Butler 54]

(06-23-2017, 02:49 AM)Galen Wrote:

(06-22-2017, 06:37 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(06-22-2017, 02:29 AM)Galen Wrote: Normally with this many special elections at least one or two seats should have flipped to Dims and this was one of the more likely ones.  None of them did and it took a seven times spending advantage and over sampling the polls like the media did last year to get this close.  The Dims still haven't learned anything and my guess is that their latest antics are in fact pissing people off.

I have often said that a fourth turning marks the end of an order and way of looking at things.  My suspicion is that when future history books are written they will say that the election of Trump marked the real end of the Progressive Era.  It looks like the next saeculum will be marked by the destruction of large entities including nation states.

My crystal ball is still hazy.  Yes, a lot of Democrats are portraying the opposition as deplorable and getting people angry.  See my notes to and about Eric.  As long as the Erics of the world are doing their thing, the reds are just going to become more stubborn and ticked off.

It will be interesting how the financial problems in states such and Illinois, which have been run by Dims for decades, play out.  It seems likely that the Dims will be blamed for this.  In the west pretty much every national government is functionally bankrupt.  This is a sign that the nation-state is no longer functioning combined with the general contempt politicians are now held.  I would suggest a little light reading on the subject.

People tend to look at the world in a very linear way.  Eric the Obtuse and Odin expect the centralization trend that started in the early modern period to continue and so believe the world will always be what they have known.  When I see major organizations all exhibit similar signs of failure then it is safe to say that the long term trends are about to change.  Religion as a major organizing force did not last forever and I see no reason that the nation-state, at least at its current scale, to last forever.

What we are seeing now is that the always existing cold war between the tax-payer and tax-consumer is turning hot because the state is running out of loot.  It is only a matter of time before the continual pillaging cause some kind of negative reaction of which I believe we are seeing the leading edge.

The above shows a relatively consistent perspective on things.  It is hardly the only perspective on things.  In many was aspects of it seem wrong, very wrong, from other perspectives.  You seem reluctant (obtuse?) to consider or respond to some of these perspectives.

A major aspect of S&H cycle theory is that moods run in cycles, come and go.  Thus, accusing other guys of linear thinking is a common gambit.  For me, in general, a crisis is a time where major problems are coming to a head, when everyone has to work together to put the culture as a whole on solid ground again.  We’re overdue for such a time.  An unraveling is a time of selfishness, a time when the country is seen as relatively well off, a time when you ask not what you can do for your country, you ask what the country can do for you.

For many progressives, the crisis mode of thinking is patriotic and very American.  We work together for the common good in time of need.  Bear any burden, pay any price, support every friend, oppose every foe, yada, yada, yada.  Yes, this does come and go with the cycles.  It can be overdone.  It has been overdone.  If the GIs exemplified the best of this American can do spirit, they pushed too long and saw that spirit collapse on them.  If the cycles are healthy, the time to contribute to common causes will come again.  Still, it is those who have committed to the unraveling ideas, who think the unraveling will continue, that think the unraveling pattern will or ought to be continued indefinitely who are thinking linearly.  Eric and other progressives are thinking that America can be great again.

This cycle's overlong unraveling is centered on a few Republican memes.  Cut taxes, spend big on the military, and cut domestic services.  Some of these ideas do fit well with the tendency of superpowers to fade to ordinary powers.  Superpowers tend to keep trying to be superpowers when the special circumstances that made them superpowers are gone.  They overspend on the military and allow their debt to build up in an unsustainable way.

I tend to agree with your talk of the US being in fading empire mode.  I tend to agree that our position on the world stage will have to fade if we are to compete with other power blocks who tune their cultures toward better economic competition.  I just see the spend more tax less Republican unraveling memes, first pushed by Reagan before the Soviet Union fell, most recently pushed by Trump, as furthering the perhaps inevitable economic collapse due to military overspending typical of fading superpowers.  Something’s got to give.  Either the military has to shrink or national priorities have to shift.  Frankly, I’m ready to see the military fade.

I’m not overly familiar with the financial problems of Illinois and other Midwest states.  I sort of think of Flint Michigan’s water problems as representative.  If you don’t fund government agencies, if there is a mode of thought that government agencies fail, that they never do well, then they will fail.

I don’t know how the blame game will fall out.  Politicians will point fingers.  Voters will exercise their political prejudices as much as they look at who failed in what way.  It is clearer what has to be done.  If there is a necessary service that the people want, they have to pay for it.  If a politician, manager or local government employee doesn’t get his job done, you fire him.  If you want a functional government, you want and need healthy oversight to make sure your tax dollars will be well spent.

The unraveling memes can be taken to far.  If one keeps cutting domestic finding, if one assumes the government cannot do its job well, things fall apart.  Some of us who want to shake unraveling thinking favor giving local agencies what they need to get the job done then holding them accountable to doing their job.

I’m not in the mood to go all partisan on that.  I’ve no desire to see Republicans who don’t believe in government in government, but there is no lack of Democrats sleeping on a government job.  I have no great interest in the blame game, but don’t doubt a great deal of energy will be wasted on it.  I’ve more interest in getting competent motivated people on the job.